Analyst Articles

I’d be surprised if you’ve heard of Larry Meyer, but in the past few days, he’s created quite a buzz. Larry Meyer is a former Federal Reserve Governor. He holds a B.A. from Yale; a Ph.D. from MIT. His pedigree is top-notch. So are his connections. Meyer is still buddies with the folks on the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. And his friends tell him what goes on at their meetings weeks before the general public gets to read about it. You would… Read More

I’d be surprised if you’ve heard of Larry Meyer, but in the past few days, he’s created quite a buzz. Larry Meyer is a former Federal Reserve Governor. He holds a B.A. from Yale; a Ph.D. from MIT. His pedigree is top-notch. So are his connections. Meyer is still buddies with the folks on the Federal Open Market Committee, the policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. And his friends tell him what goes on at their meetings weeks before the general public gets to read about it. You would think sharing that information with anyone outside the current Fed members would be illegal. You would also think the fact that Meyer charges well-heeled clients $75,000 each for access to what he has heard — well ahead of the investing public — would be unlawful. Amazingly, neither action is illegal, according to a Reuters investigation. One of the Federal Reserve’s main tools is setting target interest rates, and profits can be made or lost based on what the Fed says at its meetings. It makes me mad… Read More

After September's rally, I'm more determined than ever to wait out lower prices and higher yields. In September, the S&P 500 rose an amazing +8.8%. While I'm not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, I think September's rise could increase the chance of a year-end market dip. Read More

In 1998, Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) lost $4.6 billion in less than four months. Although the hedge fund was led by Nobel Prize winners, noted professors, a Federal Reserve Vice Chairman and well-known Wall Street arbitrage experts, it made two basic, but costly, investment mistakes. Read More

Everywhere I turn, I see headlines about the new "bond bubble." Clearly, the demand for bonds has been rising -- pushing up prices and pushing down yields. But are bonds "overpriced?" Do they represent more risk? Are they bubbling? Read More

In a former life, I worked as a manager and analyst at IBM (NYSE: IBM) for almost 20 years. During my time there, I was in charge of some pretty big budgets — some reaching nearly $100 million a year. But at a major company like IBM, there are some even larger numbers in play. Case in point: On Monday of last week, IBM sold $1.5 billion in bonds. It was a good time to do it, too. According to The Wall Street Journal, the three-year notes were issued with an interest rate of… Read More

In a former life, I worked as a manager and analyst at IBM (NYSE: IBM) for almost 20 years. During my time there, I was in charge of some pretty big budgets — some reaching nearly $100 million a year. But at a major company like IBM, there are some even larger numbers in play. Case in point: On Monday of last week, IBM sold $1.5 billion in bonds. It was a good time to do it, too. According to The Wall Street Journal, the three-year notes were issued with an interest rate of just 1% — barely above what similar Treasuries pay. But it’s not news that companies are issuing debt now to fund their business. Remember: rates are at record lows. If you think you’ll need the money, it’s a great time to issue bonds. However, it is news that IBM is doing it. My former employer has an uncanny track record when it comes to the timing of its debt offerings. IBM seems to know when interest rates have hit lows, and issues debt just as rates are about to ratchet back… Read More