Why the Market could Plunge and How to Protect Your Portfolio TODAY
Let’s be frank, right now isn’t an easy time to buy stocks. And I wouldn’t tell you otherwise.
According to the U.S. Debt Clock (view the debt clock online here), one of the most widely cited tools to measure our nation’s ballooning debt load, the federal government owes $14.3 trillion to our creditors.
#-ad_banner-#That’s nearly $130,000 per taxpayer.
According to the Federal Budget released by President Obama in mid-February, we’re currently on pace to add $1.65 trillion to our national debt this year alone.
And as I told you last week, yesterday — June 30th — the Federal Reserve’s massive quantitative easing program ended… effectively taking away major support from the Treasury market. Meanwhile, problems in Greece are coming to a head, while there is still a sluggish economic outlook. Stocks are facing real threats.
The most nerve-wracking thing is that we’re in a situation we’ve never seen before.
Put simply, the central bank has bought $2.8 trillion in mortgage and Treasury bonds since 2008. No single investor in history has ever bought that much… of anything. That artificial demand — academically called quantitative easing — has pushed interest rates to record lows in an attempt to spur the economy.
You already know from last week’s article that I’ve bought 150 shares of the iPath U.S. Treasury Long Bond Bear ETN (NYSE: DLBS) as the first addition to the portfolio of StreetAuthority’s newest advisory — Top 10 Stocks.
This security rises when interest rates rise… which I think is going to happen as the Federal Reserve pulls out of the market ,where it’s been buying an estimated 70% of all Treasuries.
But then what? After all, you don’t buy nearly $3 trillion in securities… turn off the money flow… and only see a slight uptick in interest rates. What else could happen?
I’ll be honest. No one knows for certain, but there are some likely outcomes.
My Top 10 Stocks team and I have been doing a bit of research on what could happen. Unfortunately, it’s not a rosy scenario. But I want to make sure you’re prepared for what could happen AFTER June 30.
Like I said, what we’re seeing is unprecedented.
Japan is really the only “case study.” They introduced quantitative easing in 2001 and ended the program in March 2006. The country was able to flood the markets with liquidity… keeping interest rates low, just as the Federal Reserve has done here.
But what happened to stocks when that flow of cash stopped? You can see for yourself in the chart below…
Soon after the end of the program, the Japanese stock market took a sharp turn lower, before rebounding… only to fall again with the global recession.
But the scary part is that unlike the United States, Japanese stocks haven’t rebounded since. Today, more than five years after the end of Japan’s quantitative easing experiment, stocks are 40% lower. Meanwhile, as The Wall Street Journal says, “The country remains mired in deflation, a general decline in wages and prices that has crippled its economy.”
This doesn’t mean we’re going to see a crash… but I don’t think I’m out of line when I tell you Japan’s past does make me nervous about the United States’ future.
Action to Take –> As I have mentioned before, investors should consider investments like the iPath U.S. Treasury Long Bond Bear ETN (NYSE: DLBS) as protection against this scenario. Nobody wants to see this come to pass, but it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be prepared.
[Note: I urge you to watch the webcast I just released last week that details what could happen now that the June 30 end of the Fed‘s “QE2” is here. You can view it here. Even if you don’t take action like I am, I think it’s important for you to know more about it.]