When I think of the current economic and financial landscape, the Spiderman meme comes to mind.

I mentioned this in a recent interview with my colleague Brad Briggs. But if you don’t know what I’m talking about, it’s the one where three Spidermen are all pointing their fingers at each other.

What do I mean by this? I touched on this a bit in the interview, but today, I’d like to expand on my point. So here goes…

Right now, we have the Fed is pointing one hand at inflation and the other hand at the recent banking crisis. Banks are pointing their fingers at the Fed for raising interest rates too high, too fast. And Wall Street points its fingers at whoever is the best culprit for the week (i.e., the Fed, interest rates, banks, jobs report, whatever important economic figure is coming out).

They are all pointing their fingers at someone or something else.

This leaves us mere peasants confused. One week the culprit is inflation. The next week it is a looming banking crisis. High mortgage rates weighing on the housing sector. The jobs report. Quantitative tightening/easing. War in Ukraine. Tensions with China. The list is longer than a CVS receipt.

And all we want to know is what moves we need to make to protect ourselves, our bank accounts, and our investments.

It’s no easy task. Although, it never has been.

Some Terrifying Projections…

The point is, right now (more so than usual), nobody has a clue what’s going on. Making matters worse, the guesses that the higher-ups are throwing out there are terrifying.

For example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its new World Economic Outlook report this week. The headline? “A Rocky Recovery.” The organization predicts just 2.8% global growth this year and warned of a hard landing for the global economy.

Then you have Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy predicting a 10% correction in the S&P 500 within the next 3 to 6 months. He sees the index revisiting the November lows (roughly 3,700) on worsening economic conditions, increased reliance on consumer credit, and potential capital/liquidity issues stemming from the recent banking crisis.

Even the “Oracle of Omaha,” Warren Buffett, warned that we’re likely to see more bank failures. He declared that many banks have been doing dumb things that we don’t know about yet. And he knows… at the height of the banking turmoil, every bank exec flew their private jets to Omaha, Nebraska (home of Buffett), likely begging the old man to help them out.

And finally, as we head into earnings season, analysts expect a 6.8% drop (year-over-year) in Q1 profits for S&P 500 companies. They also expect annual revenue growth of just 1.8% for the quarter. The former would be the largest decline since Q2 2020, while the latter would mark the slowest growth since Q3 2020.

So, we have a banking crisis that may not be over yet. An expected earnings decline with weak sales growth. And at least one major analyst is predicting a 10% drop in the stock market in the next few months. Although notorious Doomsayer Paul Singer is warning of a bubble. But that’s nothing new.

Oh, and persistent inflation.

The CPI data for March was 5%, which opens a whole new can of worms. Because this 5% came in slightly lower than expectations, some on Wall Street are weighing if we will see another rate hike from the Fed. Some are even talking about a rate cut this year. It’s almost as if they are backing the Fed into a corner.

Why You Should Ignore All Of It…

I realize my tone is pessimistic. (Although part of it could be because I’m angry with the weather. We just broke a 124-year-old record for the longest cold streak up here in the Northwest.)

But here’s the thing… it’s all just “noise.” It’s difficult (insane, really) to make investment decisions based on all these opinions. Do we ignore them? No. It’s good to know what’s going on and what people think. After all, human behavior — driven by thoughts and emotions — is what really drives the market.

But if we try to dissect all these “Spidermans” pointing their fingers at each other, we won’t make a dime in the markets. Why? Because we will be too busy trying to figure out what’s going on instead of investing.

I believe they call it paralysis by analysis.

Closing Thoughts

My advice is the same as always: have a system in place. Follow a strict set of trading rules. That’s what we do at both of my premium services, and I strongly recommend it for everyone.

The bottom line is that it doesn’t matter — the rhetoric coming out of Wall Street, the Fed, or major analysts. None of it. We will listen to the market. Here’s what the market is doing…

As you can see, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is up 19% on the year as of this writing. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. Tech was one of the hardest-hit sectors in the bear market, so it would make sense that these are the names leading us out of it.

The S&P 500 is working its way back to its early February high. Same with the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

If the tides turn? We will be ready.

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