9 Reasons Stocks Can March Much Higher This Year
The stock market has outperformed even the most optimistic forecasts so far this year. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up nearly 10% in just the first six weeks of 2013.
While not an unprecedented bullish move, it is certainly impressive. And begs the question, how much higher can stocks go from current levels?
While there is little doubt that the recent bullish momentum is fuelled by the easy money policy of the Federal Reserve, I think there are solid underlying factors that could support stock prices at even higher levels.
Here are nine bullish pillars supporting the stock market:
1. Economic data is improving |
![]() The Institute for Supply Management recently reported its index of manufacturing activity climbed to 53.1 in January, an improvement from the December reading of 50.2. Readings above 50 indicate there is economic expansion. In addition, employers added 157,000 jobs in January, not to mention the fact that hourly earnings increased slightly and growth was evident in construction and retail jobs. |
2. Money is pouring in the stock market |
![]() What I find most bullish about this scenario is that $410 billion outflowed from stocks since January 2008. This means there is a tremendous additional capital just waiting for the right time to be redeployed into stocks. Just imagine the upside that the missing $390 million could fuel into the stock market when it finds its way back home. |
3. Momentum |
![]() Looking at the global picture, U.S. stocks have outperformed Japanese stocks by 97%, European stocks by 24% and emerging-market equities by 22% during the same period. U.S. stocks also crushed the 18% return of 10-Year Treasury notes during this time. These same notes, on the other hand, outperformed the 14% overall return for bond markets in global developed economies. |
4. Safety in size |
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5. Natural resources |
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6. Global “brain power” |
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7. Military strength |
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8. Energy dominance |
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9. The reversal of outsourcing |
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Risks to Consider: Looking at the technical picture of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, upside resistance has been hit in the 14,000 range. This resistance forms a gigantic double top on the monthly chart. This signals a very likely short-term pull back in the stock market.
Action to Take –> I remain very bullish on the stock market this year. I expect a short-term pull back, however the improving economy combined with the easy money policy of the Fed will likely keep fuelling the stock market higher in 2013. The Dow could easily close the year in the 15,000 range.
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