Invest In The Global Middle Class — With One Of Buffett’s Favorites
By 2030, the global middle class is expected to more than double in size from 2 billion to 4.9 billion. That demographic change is going to have a huge impact around the world.
#-ad_banner-#For the people who join the middle class, it’s going to mean a significant amount of disposable income for the first time in their lives — allowing them to purchase the luxuries that Westerners have long taken for granted.
For investors, it’s important to be aware of not only the fact that the ranks of the middle class are going to swell… but where.
Today, half of the 2 billion people in the global middle class are from North America and Europe. By 2030, that share is expected to shrink to 22%.
On the other hand, Asia is expected to have 64% of the planet’s middle class by 2030.
As an investor, I want to make sure that the companies I’m investing in are going to have the wind at their backs for a long time to come. I like companies that benefit from the fact that people are living longer. I like companies that benefit from rising oil prices. And I like companies that are exposed to this burgeoning Asian middle class.
One way to get exposure to bigger discretionary spending in Asia is to buy multi-national North American companies that do some of their business overseas. But to get more-direct exposure to this middle-class trend, I would like to own companies that are going to have most of their operations and sales in Asia.
The problem with that is that investing in these foreign companies can be daunting. That is why I’m interested in an Asian furniture manufacturer called Nova Lifestyle (Nasdaq: NVFY). Nova is listed on the Nasdaq and does a significant amount of business with a company I trust, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B).
I figure if a company is good enough for Buffett to do business with, it’s good enough for me to at least take a look at.
Based in California, Nova LifeStyle designs, builds and distributes modern lifestyle furniture designed to appeal to middle and upper-middle-class consumers — exactly the type of consumer I’m looking to get exposure to.
Nova manufactures its products in a 1.1 million-square-foot production facility in China near Hong Kong. The facility covers every aspect of the manufacturing process, from woodcutting to warehousing and distribution.
Sales for the company are split fairly evenly between Europe, the U.S. and China. The exposure to China is what I’m interested in, but I appreciate that the company has established relationships with several U.S. furniture companies, including Rooms To Go and Berkshire’s Nebraska Furniture Mart.
Nova is already a fast-growing company. Sales were up more than 50% in 2012 and are on pace to be up another 33% in fiscal 2013.
Depending on what happens in the fourth quarter of its fiscal 2013, it appears that Nova is on pace for record earnings, and at the current share price trades for 18 to 20 times trailing earnings. That price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is basically in line with the overall market. In other words, Nova has an average valuation.
The question that I would ask, then, is whether Nova has better than average long-term growth prospects. Given the expectations for the level of spending by the Asian middle class in the coming years, I would say the answer to that question is a very clear yes.
A P/E multiple of 18 to 20 on a slow-growing company is likely expensive. On a company growing at the rates the Nova has been (and likely will continue to be), a price to earnings of 18 to 20 is a different story. If a company is priced at 18 times trailing earnings and then grows by 30% the following year, that P/E shrinks to under 14 (if the share price doesn’t rise).
Many great investments have been made paying a fair price for a company that grows at a high rate for an extended period of time. As Buffett might say, a good company at a fair price is better than a poor company at a low price.
Nova’s balance sheet is conservative and liquid. Current assets stand at $34 million, while current liabilities are $12 million. There is very little long-term debt.
Risks to Consider: Furniture sales are a cyclical business. That means that there will be bumps along the road and years when growth slows temporarily. Also keep an eye on cash flows: Over time they should at least equal earnings.
Action to Take –> Buy shares in Nova Lifestyle, which is attractively valued relative to its high growth rates. However, take your time and do your own research — there will likely be opportunities to get in at even better prices if you are patient.
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