3 Under-The-Radar Stocks With 100% Upside
As the market steadily advanced to fresh highs earlier this year, some investors grew queasy. Global tensions, the Fed’s imminent end to its bond buying program and valuations that seemed stretched led many investors to move to the sidelines, boosting the percent of their portfolio tied up in cash.
#-ad_banner-#For those investors, holding cash now looks quite prescient. Not only did a high cash position enable them to sideswipe losses in small caps, energy stocks and other recent slumping asset classes, but it also gave them the liquidity to snap up stocks that are clearly oversold (something fully-invested investors simply can’t do).
If you have built up cash and are now looking to profit from the sharp drop seen in many stocks, then here are three stocks on my radar, all of which possess at least 100% potential upside.
Synergy Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: SGYP)
This is an intriguing biotech with a big problem on its hands. It is developing a new drug, plecanatide, which is showing impressive efficacy of treatment for irritable bowel syndrome in clinical trials. A rival, Ironwood Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: IRWD) already has a competing drug on the market, helping the company garner a $1.8 billion market value. Synergy, in contrast, is valued at less than $300 million, even though Irina Rivkind, an analyst at investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald, believes Synergy has the more effective drug.
Trouble is, Synergy doesn’t have enough money in the bank to complete clinical trials. After shares have steadily fallen in recent months, management appears disinclined to issue a lot of shares to raise cash. Instead, Rivkind thinks they are “holding out for an attractive takeout price based on the quality of its data, which implies blockbuster potential for plecanatide.” Synergy is expected to reveal more clinical data in early November, and if the data are as robust as Rivkind anticipates, then management will have a strong hand to play in acquisition discussions. Even if Synergy was valued at just half of Ironwood’s valuation, then shares would triple in value.
Rally Software Development Corp. (Nasdaq: RALY)
The greatest challenge for tech departments is to ensure that software upgrades from some programs don’t create compatibility issues with existing other software modules. In fact, there is an entire cottage industry of software management, known as Agile software development, that helps keep all of the various software programs in perfect harmony. Rally Software is one of the leading players in the Agile niche, posting at least 30% sales growth for six-straight years.
But Rally is now facing the inevitable growing pains that come with up-and-coming software-based business models. Analysts think sale growth will slow to 20% in fiscal (January) 2015 and 2016. Slowing growth has caused shares to tumble to a recent $9 from around $30 in the summer of 2013.
Yet business trends may be turning up. In an August 2014 quarterly conference call with analysts, CEO Tim Miller said, “we see a very healthy (October) Q3 pipeline of our business with positive signals in Q4 as well.” The sales trends are the result of a move to boost the size of the sales force earlier this year.
It’s unlikely that shares can return to that summer 2013 peak, but the current enterprise valuation of $175 million, which equates to less than two times sales, appears too low. Subscription-based software firms typically trade at four-to-six times sales. Once investors see that growth can sustain in the 20% range for the foreseeable future, thanks to that expanded sales force, then shares can move back up to the $20 range.
Monster Worldwide, Inc. (NYSE: MWW)
It’s hard to believe that this company was once among the brightest stars of the dot-com era. It built a durable and popular employment search platform, and its future looked quite bright. Yet the company managed to lose its mojo over the next decade as people began to use other job sites. By 2009, LinkedIn Corp. (Nasdaq: LNKD) was just starting to gain buzz, which would have been a good time to ditch this stock. Over the past five years, shares have fallen 73%. One measure of just how hated this stock is: it’s a web-based business model, yet trades for just 0.5 times sales.
At this point, it’s quite unlikely that this company will ever regain its lost luster. But a massive overhaul of the business model in May 2014 bears close scrutiny. Monster is taking several pages from the LinkedIn playbook, aiming to create a more effective candidate search system for human resources platforms.
The overhaul is being run by CEO Sal Iannuzzi, who has just about worn out his welcome with beleaguered shareholders. He’s got to get this overhaul right, or he’s likely to be shown the door. Monster reports Q3 results in early November, at which time investors can gauge if the business overhaul is leading to sales traction. Considering just how cheap this stock is, even modest traction and a visible path to sales growth, could send shares sharply higher. A move to the $8-to-$10 range in 2015 is quite feasible, if Monster can gain just a bit of buzz from HR departments and if the U.S. employment picture continues to strengthen.
Risks to Consider: Synergy Pharma carries balance sheet risk, ahead of Phase III clinical trials. Monster and Rally both need to avoid another round of downward sales revisions, lest these stocks grow even more unloved by the crowd.
Action to Take –> It’s hard to know when these stocks will finally garner investor interest. Upcoming quarterly results may or may not be the catalysts they need (at least for the two non-biotechs). Yet even if upcoming quarterly results are uninspiring, any signs of sales traction are what you need to look for. In the case of Synergy Pharma, a candid discussion about the company’s cash position may help alleviate investor concerns about potential dilution. However, with a few breaks, all three of these stocks could be among the market’s top gainers for the year ahead.
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