Skilled Trucker Shortage Spells 60% Upside For This Market Leader
Although material or worker shortages can really crimp the growth for companies and even entire industries, they can also present big opportunities.
Take the ongoing shortage of skilled drivers who can handle big rigs and other heavy-duty vehicles. As recently reported by the Business Insider, the United States is short 30,000 truck drivers because of increasing regulation, somewhat stingy pay, loss of qualified drivers during the recession and a lack of interest in truck driving among young people.
#-ad_banner-#And it looks like the situation could get quite a bit worse, with the truck driver shortfall projected to rise nearly eightfold to 239,000 by 2022. Since truck driving is a high-turnover profession, the trucking industry will need about 100,000 new drivers a year for the next decade to close the gap, according to the American Trucking Associations.
It’s a serious issue, causing supply chain disruption, lost revenues and poorer performance in a number of industries like dairy, agriculture and consumer goods in addition to the trucking industry itself. And that’s not good for the economy.
But it is good for a company that can help solve the problem.
Now, this firm’s not in recruiting and staffing, so it won’t be attracting new drivers to the trucking industry that way. But it can help make truck driving more attractive with its products: fully automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial trucks.
Think about it. One thing that makes truck driving a skilled profession is the ability to operate a complex manual transmission on a massive commercial vehicle weighing 35 tons or more, often at highway speeds or in tight spaces. It can be pretty physical and takes lots of training and practice, as well as a special license.
Well, the job should be markedly easier — and thus more appealing to potential new drivers — without all the work of a stick shift. Enter: Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ALSN).
As by far the top provider of automatic transmissions for commercial trucks, with nearly two-thirds market share globally, Allison is at the forefront of the trucking’s rapid switch to automatics. While only about a fifth of commercial trucks had either a semi- or fully-automatic transmission four years ago, now more than a third do and almost half are expected to by the end of next year.
In fact, some analysts believe the trucking industry could eventually phase out manual transmissions almost entirely in coming years. Not only are automatics easier to use, but they’re cleaner, cheaper, more fuel efficient and easier to maintain, analysts argue.
For Allison, that should mean much stronger sales, which have actually been stagnant the past few years. One reason for this, according to Morningstar, is commercial carriers over-ordered automatic trucks in anticipation of new emission standards. This contributed to a temporary supply glut in the industry. And, of course, the economy was much shakier two or three years ago. So Allison’s annual sales of nearly $2 billion are still right around where they’ve been since 2010.
However, with the economy finally firming and automatic trucks gaining popularity, Allison has multiple opportunities for revenue growth, probably somewhere in the mid- to high-single digits in coming years. For example, in North America, which accounts for about 45% of total sales, management projects demand will rise to 317,000 units by 2016. That would be a 21% increase from the 264,000 units sold in 2012 and more than double the recession low of just 151,000 unit sales.
Domestically, management thinks it can do especially well in class 8 metro, the market for commercial trucks made for urban use. Allison only controls 8% of this market, where demand is strong (about 60,000 units a year). The firm could quickly increase market share with its recently introduced 10-speed, fully automatic transmission for class 8 metro vehicles. Although rivals like Eaton Corp. Plc (NYSE: ETN) and Navistar International Corp. (NYSE: NAV) fielded similar products first, Allison’s is gaining a reputation for better performance, smoother shifting and greater fuel efficiency.
Internationally, automatic heavy-duty trucks aren’t in much demand in Europe, but they are in emerging markets. Allison has been pursuing this opportunity and is already the leading provider of automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles in China, where its products have been installed in 54,000 vehicles (things like garbage trucks, fire and emergency vehicles and dump trucks).
In China, Allison’s transmissions for buses, mining vehicles and oil field services equipment should also see high demand, thanks to government emphasis on modernizing sectors relying on such equipment. Similar growth opportunities should abound in the Middle East and Africa, too, management says.
Despite a lack of revenue growth, Allison managed a 29% gain in annual free cash flow since 2011, to $480 million from $372 million. This facilitated a 21% reduction in long-term debt, which fell to $2.7 billion from $3.4 billion. Since 2011, stockholder’s equity has nearly doubled — to more than $1.4 billion from $822 million — and operating margins have improved four percentage points to 23.8%.
Risks to Consider: Although Allison has been paying down debt, its obligations remain considerable as indicated by a debt-to-equity ratio of 2, a level four times the industry average of 0.5.
Action to Take –> With its attractive growth prospects, market dominance, improving financials and recent upgrade by Credit Suisse from “neutral” to “outperform,” I’m confident Allison can successfully manage its debt and deliver the 12%-a-year earnings growth projected for the company over the next five years. Such growth implies about 60% upside for the firm’s stock during that time, assuming an earnings multiple of 27 (shares currently trade for 30 time earnings). Returns could be even better for patient investors who buy after the broader market pulls back again, as I strongly suspect it could in a big way relatively soon.
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