The 144 Year-Old ‘Forever Stock’ That Keeps Beating The Market
The Brown family in Louisville, Kentucky had plenty to celebrate in 1933. The repeal of prohibition meant that they could once again sell the family’s well-regarded whiskey, continuing the tradition started by family patriarch George Garvin Brown right after the Civil War. Brown’s Old Forester Kentucky Straight Bourbon Whisky (now known as Woodford’s Reserve) was just the first of many liquor brands to eventually fall into the stable run by Brown-Forman Corp. (NYSE: BF-A).
#-ad_banner-#Though demand for Brown-Forman’s spirits have remained steady for decades, the company is now riding one of the hottest trends in the spirits industry: Brown liquor.
Brands such as Jack Daniels, Southern Comfort and others are growing in popularity across the demographic spectrum. What was once the drink of choice among older men is now finding appeal among women and millennials and is also increasingly popular in a wide range of foreign markets. According to the company, sales of premium spirits are growing at a 14% annual pace in emerging markets — twice the rate seen in the United States and Europe. The broadening popularity helps explain why shares have risen nearly 300% since 2009, handily eclipsing the S&P 500.
Yet careful readers of our Top 10 Stocks newsletter, which focuses on what we call “Forever Stocks,” know that we aren’t solely interested in bull market performance. We also favor stocks that hold up well in tougher markets. Brown-Forman saw its stock fall a moderate 29% during the 2007-2009 market rout, at a time when most other stocks fell 40%, 60%, 80% or more. That’s truly a rain or shine stock.
Why did shares show such defensive characteristics? Because people tend to consume alcohol in good times and bad. Simply put, people have been consuming a drink or two with dinner for longer than historical records have been kept.
There’s another key charm to this company’s business model. Unlike many consumer items, the spirits business is not subject to cut-throat price wars. Spend money on marketing, build a durable brand and you can charge a lot more for a bottle of liquor than it costs to produce. That helps explain why Brown-Forman has generated operating margins in excess of 30% for four-straight years. (As a point of reference, a soft drink maker such as The Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) generates operating margins closer to 20%.)
How steady is this business? Well, Brown-Forman has boosted profits at a 9% annual compound growth rate over the past three decades. That has enabled the company to raise its dividend every single year since 1995 — without fail. And when you consider that per share profits are expected to grow by double-digits in each of the next few years, then the dividend winning streak is sure to continue.
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend | $0.56 | $0.62 | $0.69 | $0.75 | $0.78 | $0.83 | $0.89 | $0.98 | $1.09 | $1.16 |
Dividend Growth Rate | 14% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 6% |
Management isn’t solely focused on the dividend. A $250 million share buyback program was completed in September and a new one was launched in October. The shareholder perks come from Brown-Forman’s prodigious operating cash flow, which has exceeded $700 million for five-straight years and should exceed $1 billion in the current fiscal year.
Here’s one simple reason to know why Brown-Forman is a Forever Stock. There are currently around 7.3 billion people in the world, and by 2050, that figure is expected to swell to 9.6 billion. Of course all of those newborns won’t be consuming liquor in the early years, but as they grow into adulthood, they’ll likely try their first Jack Daniels, SoCo or any of the other brands held by Brown-Forman.
Risks To Consider: Tobacco consumption triggered a backlash that eventually crimped global demand. Such a backlash for alcohol appears unlikely, but greater consumption restrictions, by for example lowering the legal blood alcohol content limit, would lead to smaller crowds at the local bar.
Action To Take –> As is the case with many Forever Stocks, great business models can rarely be bought on the cheap. Shares trade for around 25 times fiscal (April) 2016 profits. You can find less expensive stocks elsewhere. But part of the valuation accounts for the company’s powerful and durable brands, which are worth billions. Think of Brown-Forman as a perfect buy-and-hold stock, as the ingredients that helped propel the company over the past 144 years will help to fuel growth for many decades to come.
Special Editor’s Note: We’re excited to announce Top Ten Stocks groundbreaking new research report, “The 10 Stocks To Own For The Rest Of Your Life.” This never-before-seen list of 10 “Forever” stocks has gained an average of 829% over the past decade, beating the S&P 500 by more than 7-to-1. Dave Forest, the newsletter’s chief investment strategist, recently shared his new research and a few of these stocks with a live audience at St. Edward’s University, and now we want to share them with you. To watch the filmed version of this special presentation, go here now.