This Resilient Blue Chip Has At Least 45% Upside
#-ad_banner-#If you’re a fan of old-time boxers, then you probably remember George Chuvalo.
He was a sturdy Canadian heavyweight of the 60s and 70s who faced the best fighters of his time, including some extremely heavy hitters. In 93 hard-fought bouts, he came out on top far more often than not and wasn’t knocked down once.
As an investor, Chuvalo reminds me of United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX), a large conglomerate serving the aerospace, construction and other industries. Like Chuvalo, United Technologies has been the epitome of consistency, delivering decades of solid growth in earnings, cash flow and dividends.
And UTX proved that it can also take a punch. The firm faced unusual adversity in 2014, but powered through and went on to post solid financial results.
Among last year’s troubles:
— Delays in meeting order deadlines for 28 Cyclone shipboard helicopters for the Canadian military.
— A couple big setbacks in the Pratt & Whitney division, including testing failures of a new commercial engine being developed for aircraft maker Bombardier, Inc. (OTC: BDRAF). (In fact, the U.S. military’s whole fleet of new F-35 Joint Strike Fighters was grounded temporarily to address a risk that engines made by Pratt & Whitney were prone to catching fire.) Pratt & Whitney’s commercial division saw a major slump in demand for spare parts.
— A construction slowdown in China dented order growth in UTX’s elevator and escalator business.
— To top it all off, CEO Louis Chenevert abruptly resigned a few days before Thanksgiving.
However, UTX’s stock has shown impressive resilience, rising nearly 6% year-to-date and about 12% since Chenevert’s resignation.
Despite recent setbacks, UTX hasn’t fallen out of favor with investors, because the company has been able to maintain solid sales growth. In fiscal 2014, revenue climbed 4% to $65 billion and earnings per share, or EPS, rose 10% to $6.82. Operating margins of 15% were 30 basis points higher than the year before, and the dividend grew roughly 7% to $2.36 a share.
Despite the impressive results in the face of such headwinds in 2014, the current year may prove to be a bit more challenging. Thanks to its global sales presence, UTX will feel the negative impact of a strong dollar. Pension costs will also weigh on results. Together, these two headwinds could knock $0.30 a share off the bottom line in 2015, according to management.
Still, analysts are still calling for a nearly 3% rise in per share profits, to around $7. Back out those just-noted headwinds, and profits would likely be growing at a more robust 7% in 2015.
Looking over the longer-term, this business model appears capable of 9% annual EPS growth, with share repurchases and acquisitions providing some of the boost. This year, for example, management is earmarking nearly $3 billion for share buybacks and $1 billion for acquisitions, compared with $1.5 billion and $344 million, respectively, in 2014.
UTX hasn’t made a major acquisition since it acquired Goodrich Corp. in 2011 for $16.5 billion. That deal nicely augmented UTX’s commercial aircraft landing gear and jet turbine casings businesses.
However, UTX’s new CEO, Gregory Hayes, has made it clear that he’s hunting for another big acquisition, and some analysts would like him to consider Textron, Inc. (NYSE: TXT), a rival with annual revenue of nearly $14 billion. Snaring Textron would bring in a variety of complementary offerings, like small private aircraft and military helicopters, analysts say.
Investing in its aerospace franchise could prove timely as the Pratt & Whitney division is set to recover from last year’s hardship. An especially promising development: the FAA’s recent approval of PurePower® turbofan, an engine that Pratt & Whitney developed for the Airbus A320neo, a new narrow-body passenger aircraft.
Demand for more modern, efficient commercial jets is skyrocketing, since air travel is picking up along with global urbanization. And narrow-bodies like the A320neo are the airline industry’s aircraft of choice for servicing a growing customer base. Indeed, nearly 26,000 orders for narrow-body jets are expected during the next couple of decades.
In the case of Airbus Group (OTC: EADSY), there’s already roughly a 3,400-order backlog for the A320neo, with substantially more new orders possible based on industry demand estimates. Because each A320neo requires two PurePower® engines, Pratt & Whitney recently opened a state-of-the-art factory in Connecticut to ensure adequate supply.
Over the long haul, the division should also generate many billions in revenue from engines for the F-35. During the next two decades, the U.S. military expects to spend roughly $400 billion for about 2,500 F-35s. Pratt & Whitney also makes engines for earlier-generation fighter aircraft like the F-16 Falcon and F-22 Raptor.
UTX’s Otis division, which makes elevators and escalators, also appears primed for improving results. The division generated operating margins in excess of 20%, which is ahead of the company-wide 13% operating margin average for UTX’s four other divisions (Climate Controls & Security, Pratt & Whitney, Aerospace Systems and Sikorsky).
For Otis, management projects mid-single-digit sales growth in 2015, thanks to solid demand in countries such as China and the United Kingdom, where residential housing and civil engineering-related construction activities are also gaining momentum. In the United States, declining office and retail vacancies are triggering increased commercial construction, which should be a tailwind for Otis’ North American operations.
The Middle East is another promising region for UTX. During the next five-to-10 years, for example, the Sikorsky division projects region-wide sales of 400 commercial and Black Hawk military helicopters, roughly the number it has already sold in the Middle East to date. Overall, UTX has approximately 20% exposure to faster-expanding emerging markets, which should help offset slower growth in developed economies.
Risks To Consider: UTX can clearly weather adversity, but it’s not invincible. A number of variables could lead to subpar performance, including further product failures, downturns in more cyclical businesses (such as the Otis division) and budget cuts among the firm’s military customers.
Action To Take –> UTX’s “strong chin” should allay any serious concerns investors may have about the firm’s recent troubles. Focus instead on its key qualities — diverse business lines, a robust cash position and multiple growth avenues. During the next five years, these should enable UTX to maintain a double-digit pace of dividend growth and offer capital gain potential of approximately 45%-to-50%.
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