Cash In On Late Investors With These High-Yield Stocks
During a bull market, you can just about set your watch to individual investors being fashionably late. Institutional money is always early to the party. They must be per their investment mandates. But individual retail investors are a completely different animal.
Why do individual investors always get in late during a bull run? This chart of the S&P 500 going back to the turn of the century is the best explanation.
Over the last 17 years, the index has endured two bear markets, where the average decline was 47%, and two significant corrections with average drawdowns of 16.5%. This translates into a major market downturn every 4.25 years. That’s a lot of volatility, and volatility always frightens individual investors.
But as everyone knows, when dealing with market forces the opposite side of fear is greed. Once individual investors see that the train has left the station, they usually chase it. One of the main vehicles used in the chase, of course, is the venerable mutual fund.
#-ad_banner-#With this is mind, fund manager stocks are an excellent way to profit from tardy investors jumping into the market. As investors shovel money into the funds, increasing the managers’ assets under management (AUM), fee revenue grows, which in turn drives earnings growth.
Here are two of my favorite ideas in the space.
Waddell & Reed Financial (NYSE: WDR): I profiled this stock back in August of last year. It came close to hitting my price target of $22.44, peaking at $21.98 in December of 2016 for a 14%-plus gain. The stock price has again returned to the same price neighborhood it was in when I first wrote about it and I am still bullish on the name. At around $19.40, the stock trades with a forward P/E of just 12.25 and yields 9.5%. Analysts have drastically lowered expectations on both revenue and earnings by as much as 15%.
However, this sets the bar lower for the firm, allowing them to surprise to the upside thanks to retail investors showing up late to the rally. The firm is best-positioned to accomplish this through their widely sold Ivy Funds.
AllianceBernstein (NYSE: AB): I’ve written AB many times, most recently last fall in anticipation of rising interest rates. AB always seems to be one of my “go-to” asset manager stocks and has been for a very long time. The firm has created a legacy of excellent research thanks to the Bernstein pedigree. The product distribution side of the business has also always executed consistently, notably as the first asset manager to enter the advisor-sold 529 education savings plan market.
Structured as a master limited partnership, AB has grown net income from continuing operations at an average annual rate of 10% over the last three years, which has translated into EPS growth of 6.5% for the same period. Going forward, EPS growth is forecasted to grow at an attractive, average annual clip of 10.5%. The 8.17% dividend yield sweetens the deal.
Risks To Consider: In general, both stocks face a few macro headwinds. The most obvious is the health of the bull market in equities. Individual investors are by far the most knee-jerk of any group and are still suffering shell shock from 2008. Any hint of a market pullback will keep their cash on the sidelines.
Another threat is more industry specific. Actively managed mutual funds have been steadily losing market share to lower cost index and exchange traded funds. Based on industry data, this trend should continue. The best defense both firms can play would be to focus on high-quality market research used to drive fund performance.
Action To Take: As a basket both stocks trade with an average forward P/E of just 12.15 and have a well-above-average dividend yield of 8.8%. While AB delivers consistent 10% EPS growth and WDR has set the stage to surprise thanks to favorable market conditions, together these stocks could deliver capital gains exceeding 15%. With dividends thrown in, investors could enjoy total returns approaching 24%.
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