Beat The Economy With These 3 Earnings Growers
One of my many favorite Buffettisms is, “I don’t look to jump over 7-foot bars. I look around for 1-foot bars I can step over.” The Oracle did not get rich by accident.
In keeping with that maxim, one criteria I’ve always used for stock selection is comparing the underlying company’s five-year average earnings per share growth rate to the five-year average annual growth rate of U.S. GDP.
#-ad_banner-#I know. GDP growth has been anemic for almost a decade. But consider this:
Over the last five years, the United States has enjoyed moderate economic expansion after the collapse of 2008 and the subsequent recession. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.36% over the last five years. Not great. But better than the plunge the economy experienced in 2008.
The three stocks I’ve selected have grown EPS at nearly 6% annually over the last five years. U.S. economic growth would need to nearly triple to beat that rate. That would be like trying to turn an aircraft carrier in a bathtub. Even going back to 1960, U.S. GDP has grown in an average band of around 5%.
The earnings growth these companies deliver is consistent and achievable. They are the one-foot bars.
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO)
I know — I’m gunning for the broken record award for pounding the table on Cisco. But if there were Academy Awards given for a stock’s best performance as a bond, this would be the one.
Over the last five years, the world’s leading data network equipment company (yes… they control just about every major segment of that space by a third or better) has grown EPS at an average annual rate of 6.6%, 180% greater than GDP. On the income side, the Cisco Kid has grown its common dividend at a respectable 15% average annual rate for the same period.
Genuine Parts Co. (NYSE: GPC)
Ok, now I know I’ve definitely locked in the broken record award. GPC is better known to consumers as NAPA auto parts. And aftermarket auto parts is probably one of the most lucrative businesses in the United States for too many reasons to cover now.
GPC has grown EPS at an annual rate of 5.13%, besting U.S. economic growth by 117%. On the dividend side, GPC is one of the most impressive achievers out there turning in an astounding 62 consecutive years of dividend increases.
General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS)
If you love Pillsbury cinnamon rolls, Haagen Dazs ice cream, or Lucky Charms, you’ll love this stock. It doesn’t get any more consumer staples/defensive than this $25 billion consumer goods titan.
While everything associated with retail from clothing to groceries is in the middle of some sort of cultural sea change, this company has staying power. Five-year average annual EPS growth has been a solid 6.06%, beating the economy handily by 156%. The company has also grown its dividend at a respectable 7.6% for the same period.
Risks To Consider: To quote political strategy legend James Carville: “It’s the economy, stupid.” Is it possible that GDP growth could outstrip the group? Mathematically? Sure. Any of these companies or all could stumble, have crappy quarters, millions could be sickened by some foodborne pathogen in General Mills’ case. All cards are on the table.
But there are two things to keep in mind. First, these companies didn’t get where they are thanks to incompetence and inconsistency. Second, the likelihood of U.S. GDP growth topping 5% is slim. Going back to 1960 when the U.S. was still the world’s primary economic engine, GDP growth has averaged 5%. All of these names are franchise players and have delivered steady, almost predictable results.
Also, the economy could tank. While Cisco would be the most vulnerable, General Mills and Genuine Parts are extremely defensive in posture.
Action To Take: Combined, all three companies are growing EPS at an average annual rate approaching 6%. As an equity basket, they have a blended dividend yield of 3.57%. On a valuation basis, the basket trades at around 15 times forward EPS — a relatively cheap price to pay for consistent EPS growth. Factoring in the dividend, patient investors could enjoy 12- to 18-month total returns in the low teens, especially if equity markets remain as non-committal as they are.
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