What’s Next For The Market?
Mark Twain is credited with the old axiom, “History doesn’t always repeat, but it can rhyme.” I’m a firm believer in that and right now, history is rhyming like a Dr. Seuss book.
Recently, I listened to a research called hosted by RBC Capital Markets’ technical strategist Bob Dickey, an old hand in our industry. Near-term he was a bit cautious. However, his long-term view is bullish.
One of my takeaways was Dickey’s long view that U.S. equity markets seem to run in 16- to 18-year secular cycles. So, the history nerd in me decided to put the old S&P 500 long chart to the test.
Looking at the similar cycles (all of them effectively came out to 18 years) and applying the historical context to each period, Dickey is dead on. In modern history, it appears that 18 years of socio-political-economic challenge and upheaval is typically followed by 18 years of relative peace, economic growth and technological innovation.
There’s no argument that we have been through 18 years of upheaval. Are we heading for a better stretch in which investors will enjoy an extended bull market? It’s impossible to know for sure. However, the tea leaves would lead us to believe that something good is coming around the bend.
#-ad_banner-#Hopeful for global growth, here are three stocks I find particularly compelling.
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS)
With Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) poised to conquer the retail world and every one of its competitors chasing them furiously, UPS finds itself in the same position of the merchants who sold picks and shovels to gold fevered prospectors in 1849 California. More than just dudes in brown driving brown trucks, the company is a world leader in global supply chain management solutions. From software to distribution to making sure the correct box winds up on your doorstep, UPS’s business is tech heavy with extensive capital investment in self-driving and drone delivery technology.
Currently trading around $116, UPS shares are attractively priced at a 15% discount to their 52-week high. The company has grown the dividend at an average annual rate of 34% over the last 5 years. It’s a great time to own this stock.
Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE: WHR)
Good times and rising markets usually translate into major consumer spending and, frankly, it doesn’t get more major and consumer than household appliances. Last year I profiled Whirlpool, exploring the thesis of the growing global middle class. I’m still a big believer in that story and peace along with an expanding business cycle should be good for everyone around the world. To go along with the expanding middle class theme, I will add millennial household formation. While the largest segment of the U.S. population (clocking in at 83.1 million) has been characterized as a bearded, coddled, parents’-basement-dwelling, anti-social bunch, they’re in the process of growing up and becoming an actual consumer tsunami. As the economy improves, so will their household formation. Household formation fuels consumerism and companies like Whirlpool will reap the rewards.
The stock’s metrics are extremely attractive with a price to sales ratio of just 0.5, which translates into the investor paying just 50 cents for a dollar’s worth of revenue. Earnings per share is expected to grow at a 17% rate over the next five years. Shares trade at a 20% discount to the 52-week high with a ridiculously cheap forward P/E of just 10.26.
HSBC Holdings PLC (NYSE: HSBC)
In order to grow, economies need capital. HSBC has it. With $2.52 trillion in total assets, HSBC holds the spot as the world’s seventh largest bank by total assets and is currently ranked as Europe’s largest bank. Covering the full gamut of financial services, from banking to wealth management to capital markets, HSBC’s international and emerging market focus make the bank the company to own going forward. Also, normalizing interest rates should benefit the company’s bottom line.
At $49.62, shares are nicely priced at a 10% discount to their 52-week high with a forward P/E of 13.8.
Risks To Consider: Typically, I look at the markets with caution. Does adopting a more constructive outlook mean that all trees will grow to the sky? Absolutely not! Investors who index will be at the whims of the entire market. A long-term structural bull market does not mean a complete absence of down periods and pullbacks. The chart will NOT go up in a straight line. Careful, thematic stock selection, risk management, quality and valuation sensitivity will continue to rule the day.
Action To Take: All three stocks are high-quality, franchise players who dominate in their space. The basket trades with an average forward P/E of 13.4, well below that of the overall market, and pays a blended dividend yield of 3.7%.
If the global, corporate earnings cycle can sustain itself and continue to grow, patient investors could expect 12- to 18-month total returns north of 10%. However, if the longer, structural bull case plays out, larger gains are in the cards.
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