I’m the lucky dad of teenage boys. Financial markets remind me of teenage boys: brilliant, rewarding, inspiring at times and other times frustrating, erratic, and just plain stupid. I’ve found the key to dealing with both is consistency, clear objectives, and conviction. #-ad_banner-#And although many market observers may describe the language of the Federal Reserve as vague and obtuse, I’m starting to think that Dr. Yellen and Company share my “the market as teenage boy” philosophy. They want rates to return to some form of normalcy, but the economic conditions must warrant the action first. They waited and waited before… Read More

I’m the lucky dad of teenage boys. Financial markets remind me of teenage boys: brilliant, rewarding, inspiring at times and other times frustrating, erratic, and just plain stupid. I’ve found the key to dealing with both is consistency, clear objectives, and conviction. #-ad_banner-#And although many market observers may describe the language of the Federal Reserve as vague and obtuse, I’m starting to think that Dr. Yellen and Company share my “the market as teenage boy” philosophy. They want rates to return to some form of normalcy, but the economic conditions must warrant the action first. They waited and waited before finally taking action in December 2015, raising the base federal funds rate a quarter of a percent. This signaled a desire to return to more realistic interest rates while reiterating that it will be an exceedingly long process to get back to their target rates. And the market, like a teenager, pouted as the S&P 500 pulled back 11% from December 2015 to February 2016. Do we expect the market to go down when the fed raises the rate again? Maybe not as much, as perhaps it’s “learned” the consequences. Then again, I’m an optimist. No, any pullback will be… Read More

A few weeks ago, I wrote about one of the most exciting revolutions to happen to investing in years. The new opportunity has to do with an asset class that has delivered out-sized returns for wealthy, elite investors while remaining off-limits to everyone else.  In short, if you’ve ever wished you could have invested in companies like Facebook and Twitter BEFORE they went public, then you’ll want to pay attention to what I have to say… —Recommended Link— Your Personal Paycheck Plan  One simple strategy is helping folks enjoy retirement more. In fact, the $2,194 Annie from Nevada makes… Read More

A few weeks ago, I wrote about one of the most exciting revolutions to happen to investing in years. The new opportunity has to do with an asset class that has delivered out-sized returns for wealthy, elite investors while remaining off-limits to everyone else.  In short, if you’ve ever wished you could have invested in companies like Facebook and Twitter BEFORE they went public, then you’ll want to pay attention to what I have to say… —Recommended Link— Your Personal Paycheck Plan  One simple strategy is helping folks enjoy retirement more. In fact, the $2,194 Annie from Nevada makes with this method covers all her monthly expenses. The $1,100 that Gordon from California earns makes life easier each month. And Curtis of Washington State puts the $4,200 he collects monthly toward home improvements. Discover the strategy that can enrich your life,too… Until May of this year, to invest in companies before they undergo an initial public offering (IPO), you had to be an “accredited” investor — that means a net worth of at least $1 million (excluding the value of your house), or an individual income of at least $200,000 a year ($300,00 combined). Now, thanks to the passage… Read More

It’s nearly impossible to click through to Bloomberg or another financial news site without being inundated with analysis predicting the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve.  Everything seems to be tied back to the potential for higher rates, and current 30-day Federal Funds futures put the odds at 65.6% that the central bank will hike by at least 25 basis points at its December meeting. #-ad_banner-#Volatility has spiked several times this year on investor fears of higher borrowing costs. The VIX volatility index spiked 88% in June when economic reports suggested higher rates were coming. Volatility jumped again, rising… Read More

It’s nearly impossible to click through to Bloomberg or another financial news site without being inundated with analysis predicting the next rate hike by the Federal Reserve.  Everything seems to be tied back to the potential for higher rates, and current 30-day Federal Funds futures put the odds at 65.6% that the central bank will hike by at least 25 basis points at its December meeting. #-ad_banner-#Volatility has spiked several times this year on investor fears of higher borrowing costs. The VIX volatility index spiked 88% in June when economic reports suggested higher rates were coming. Volatility jumped again, rising 52% in the third week of September, and then did so a third time this month.  All three surges in volatility have been met with a sell-off in stocks. But investors may be missing one very important point about rate hikes. It’s something only the economists know and something that could change the way you invest over the next several years. Understanding The Whole Rate Cycle, Not Just The Hike The watch for higher rates has turned into a Wall Street nail-biter as the market rises and falls with each piece of economic data or speech by a member… Read More

Recently I had the honor of accompanying a group of friends to Las Vegas for a bachelor party. The betrothed couple in question for this event has been very dear to me for years — and honestly, aside from a few of the typical travel hiccups, the trip was a blast.  #-ad_banner-#I’ve been to Sin City a number of times, and I know firsthand that the things you can do to have a good time are only limited by your imagination (and, yes, perhaps your inhibitions). But among these activities — whether you’re shooting dice, playing Texas Hold ‘Em, lounging… Read More

Recently I had the honor of accompanying a group of friends to Las Vegas for a bachelor party. The betrothed couple in question for this event has been very dear to me for years — and honestly, aside from a few of the typical travel hiccups, the trip was a blast.  #-ad_banner-#I’ve been to Sin City a number of times, and I know firsthand that the things you can do to have a good time are only limited by your imagination (and, yes, perhaps your inhibitions). But among these activities — whether you’re shooting dice, playing Texas Hold ‘Em, lounging at the pool, shopping, or having a nice meal at one of the many five-star restaurants in Vegas — there’s always alcohol within reach. It got me to thinking… I hope the teetotalers among the StreetAuthority crowd will forgive me for saying this, but a little booze in moderation can make certain activities a little more fun. Perhaps that’s why alcohol has historically been such a resilient investment. So today, I’d like to share a pick with you from my colleague Jimmy Butts, Chief Investment Strategist of Top Stock Advisor. And as you may have guessed, it has to do… Read More

The major U.S. stock indices staged a very modest recovery last week. The fact that it was led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which rose 0.9%, is encouraging. However, historically low volatility, overly bullish investor sentiment and late-October seasonality warn that the market may not be out of the woods yet. Except for consumer staples (-0.3%) and industrials (-0.4%), all sectors of the S&P 500 finished in positive territory last week, led by materials (+1.6%) and financials (+1.2%). #-ad_banner-# Bigger picture, Asbury Research’s sector ETF-based metric shows that the biggest positive… Read More

The major U.S. stock indices staged a very modest recovery last week. The fact that it was led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which rose 0.9%, is encouraging. However, historically low volatility, overly bullish investor sentiment and late-October seasonality warn that the market may not be out of the woods yet. Except for consumer staples (-0.3%) and industrials (-0.4%), all sectors of the S&P 500 finished in positive territory last week, led by materials (+1.6%) and financials (+1.2%). #-ad_banner-# Bigger picture, Asbury Research’s sector ETF-based metric shows that the biggest positive percentage change in investor asset flows in the past one-month and three-month periods went into the energy sector, which is seen by many as a global economic barometer.  Investors Still Too Complacent Although I would love to show Market Outlook readers a different set of market metrics each week, my primary objective is to cover what I believe to be the most influential indicators to stock market direction at any given time. Given that criterion, market volatility remains at the top of the list.  The Volatility S&P 500 (VIX) index has been rising from a complacent extreme of 12 and… Read More

I am about to make a bold call on the future price of gold. Clearly, no one knows the future, but I firmly think that the preponderance of the evidence points toward dramatically lower prices for the yellow metal over the next 24 months. In fact, I expect gold prices… Read More

As the broader market bull looks ready to be put out to pasture, one beaten-down group may be about to turn higher.  Since we’re looking at the early stages of a potential multiyear uptrend for the sector, traders who get in now could see substantial gains. And one market leader that is trading at fire-sale prices and throws off a 5% dividend yield could be the perfect way to play this turnaround. #-ad_banner-#​Cycles Always Come Full Circle Agriculture is one of my favorite long-term themes, with global food demand set to outpace production capacity. This will drive the need… Read More

As the broader market bull looks ready to be put out to pasture, one beaten-down group may be about to turn higher.  Since we’re looking at the early stages of a potential multiyear uptrend for the sector, traders who get in now could see substantial gains. And one market leader that is trading at fire-sale prices and throws off a 5% dividend yield could be the perfect way to play this turnaround. #-ad_banner-#​Cycles Always Come Full Circle Agriculture is one of my favorite long-term themes, with global food demand set to outpace production capacity. This will drive the need for fertilizers — an extremely cyclical sector that has finally started to rebound. Fertilizer producers have felt a lot of pain over the past several years. Booming capacity in China was one culprit, as it led to price pressure from imports. Another was lower crop prices, due in part to record high harvests, which weakened demand for fertilizer. However, it looks like these pressures are set to ease, leaving U.S. fertilizer producers primed for a rebound.  Shares of CF Industries (NYSE: CF), the largest nitrogen fertilizer producer in North America, are more than 65% off their 2015 highs. But they are set… Read More

The primary way investors create long-term wealth in the stock market is by riding trends. I am not talking about price trends but rather the overall societal and technological macro-trends that come together to change the world.  Trillions of dollars have been made by identifying these macro trends and purchasing shares in companies riding them. The trick is identifying companies that are leaders in their niche — the companies that possess the momentum and fortitude to withstand resistance to change, and are the first movers into the space. These three fundamental factors are what distinguish long-term winners in the stock… Read More

The primary way investors create long-term wealth in the stock market is by riding trends. I am not talking about price trends but rather the overall societal and technological macro-trends that come together to change the world.  Trillions of dollars have been made by identifying these macro trends and purchasing shares in companies riding them. The trick is identifying companies that are leaders in their niche — the companies that possess the momentum and fortitude to withstand resistance to change, and are the first movers into the space. These three fundamental factors are what distinguish long-term winners in the stock market. #-ad_banner-#One major macro societal and technological trend right now is the move to a mobile society. This trend is driven by the ubiquitous use of smartphones powered by Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and other companies in the space. We are all familiar with the fortunes that were made by those who jumped aboard this trend as early investors.  The trend toward making everything mobile has also led to the development of various sub-trends. One of the most exciting and world changing sub-trends is the move toward decoupling the transfer of money from banks and other traditional financial institutions to upstart… Read More