Analyst Articles

Earlier this week, news hit the wires that billionaire fund manager Georg Soros unloaded 37% of his stock investments in favor of gold… #-ad_banner-#And not just one gold investment, but two major shifts into gold. Bloomberg reports: Soros also bought bullish options contracts on 1.05 million shares in the SPDR Gold Trust, which tracks the price of bullion. What’s more, the fund took a stake in the world’s biggest producer of the metal, Barrick Gold Corp., worth $264 million at the end of March, the filing showed. Soros acquired 1.7 percent of Barrick, making it the fund’s biggest U.S.-listed holding. Read More

Earlier this week, news hit the wires that billionaire fund manager Georg Soros unloaded 37% of his stock investments in favor of gold… #-ad_banner-#And not just one gold investment, but two major shifts into gold. Bloomberg reports: Soros also bought bullish options contracts on 1.05 million shares in the SPDR Gold Trust, which tracks the price of bullion. What’s more, the fund took a stake in the world’s biggest producer of the metal, Barrick Gold Corp., worth $264 million at the end of March, the filing showed. Soros acquired 1.7 percent of Barrick, making it the fund’s biggest U.S.-listed holding. Well, first things first. This news comes from a mandatory filing of form 13F. Money managers that oversee more than $100 million have to file the form within 45 days of each quarter’s end. That means this news could be more than four months old. So let’s go back in in time a bit and see what was happening four months ago. This is a six-month chart of the S&P 500, the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX). Almost four months ago exactly, ABX shares started climbing in value. On January 19,… Read More

We got some major news in the metals space last recently. Mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) just gave the OK for one of the first large-scale mining investments in years: a $5.3 billion development project on its existing Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia. According to The Wall Street Journal, Rio’s project will take current open-pit operations at the mine (which primarily produces copper) underground. This should more than double production to 500,000 metric tons a year by 2027.       Oyu Tolgoi’s underground ore offers a good grade. And… Read More

We got some major news in the metals space last recently. Mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) just gave the OK for one of the first large-scale mining investments in years: a $5.3 billion development project on its existing Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia. According to The Wall Street Journal, Rio’s project will take current open-pit operations at the mine (which primarily produces copper) underground. This should more than double production to 500,000 metric tons a year by 2027.       Oyu Tolgoi’s underground ore offers a good grade. And the mine’s costs are already phenomenally low: Turquoise Hill reported first-quarter costs of 2 cents per pound of copper, helped by the gold produced as a byproduct at the mine. Including maintenance investment, the all-in costs were $0.62 per pound, compared with a spot price of about $2.20. #-ad_banner-#This is significant. After taking it on the chin after the commodity “super cycle” ended, many major mining firms ceased investing in big new projects. Now that prices for everything from copper to iron ore are picking up, it could be a sign that miners feel confident the rally will… Read More

You’ve seen the headlines. At least once a month, there’s news of a medical breakthrough that promises to extend the lives of terminally ill cancer patients, reduce suffering for people with serious illnesses or improve recovery times for folks who have surgery. #-ad_banner-#The miracles of medical science have become so commonplace that we take them for granted. These enormous advances have extended average lifespans and made centenarians commonplace. In fact, some people live well beyond 100: I just read that exactly one person born in the 19th century is still alive. (Think of the stories she could tell, or the… Read More

You’ve seen the headlines. At least once a month, there’s news of a medical breakthrough that promises to extend the lives of terminally ill cancer patients, reduce suffering for people with serious illnesses or improve recovery times for folks who have surgery. #-ad_banner-#The miracles of medical science have become so commonplace that we take them for granted. These enormous advances have extended average lifespans and made centenarians commonplace. In fact, some people live well beyond 100: I just read that exactly one person born in the 19th century is still alive. (Think of the stories she could tell, or the stocks she could have bought and held since then!) Medical miracles aren’t the only phenomenon we take for granted when it comes to healthcare. Even though most investors are familiar with the “aging of America” theme — the Baby Boom generation’s slow and steady advancement into its golden years — the scope of it is easy to overlook. Let’s revisit the facts: by 2050, the population aged 65 or older will be an estimated 84 million, vs. 43.1 million in 2012. The population of Americans 85 or older will be an estimated 18 million by 2050, vs. 5.9 million in… Read More

Earlier this month, I shared a question we recently received from a long-time subscriber to The Daily Paycheck — our premium newsletter dedicated to picking the best high-yield opportunities on the market. I also shared Chief Investment Strategist Amy Calistri’s response, along with my comments. Today, I’d like to follow that up with another Q&A. This one pertains to a common strategy investors who are seeking more income use, called “dividend capture.” #-ad_banner-#​ Q: I like quarterly dividends, but I don’t want to wait three months for the checks. Why couldn’t I move from the… Read More

Earlier this month, I shared a question we recently received from a long-time subscriber to The Daily Paycheck — our premium newsletter dedicated to picking the best high-yield opportunities on the market. I also shared Chief Investment Strategist Amy Calistri’s response, along with my comments. Today, I’d like to follow that up with another Q&A. This one pertains to a common strategy investors who are seeking more income use, called “dividend capture.” #-ad_banner-#​ Q: I like quarterly dividends, but I don’t want to wait three months for the checks. Why couldn’t I move from the monthly dividends the day before a quarterly goes ex-dividend and then go back to a monthly for three more months and do it again? What kind of problems would I have other than price adjustments? — Larry N., Indianapolis, Indiana Amy: Fabulous question Larry. The strategy you are describing is called “dividend capture.” Investors move their money from one dividend paying security to another — in an attempt to capture as many dividends as they can. Basically, they swoop in before the ex-dividend date. They… Read More

Investors have a tendency to fixate on the negative instead of seeing the bigger bullish picture. Because of this, they often overreact to the slightest bad news and rush for the exits.  For the more level-headed traders out there, this can lead to great opportunities. #-ad_banner-# Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD) is a prime example of this. Due in part to investor overreactions, this biopharmaceutical company may be one of the most undervalued stocks in its sector. Gilead offers consistent earnings growth, and analysts… Read More

Investors have a tendency to fixate on the negative instead of seeing the bigger bullish picture. Because of this, they often overreact to the slightest bad news and rush for the exits.  For the more level-headed traders out there, this can lead to great opportunities. #-ad_banner-# Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD) is a prime example of this. Due in part to investor overreactions, this biopharmaceutical company may be one of the most undervalued stocks in its sector. Gilead offers consistent earnings growth, and analysts expect it to earn $12.08 per share this year and $12.42 per share next year. With shares trading at $82.70, GILD has a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of less than 7, which is a bargain considering that the average forward valuation in the biotech industry is 25. Other large drug companies with stable earnings — like Merck (NYSE: MRK) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) — often trade with forward multiples above the industry average. If GILD were valued at just half the industry average (which I believe is a fair assumption), shares would trade around $150 — more than 80% above… Read More

In all honesty, I don’t know where I stand in the genetically-modified crops argument. On one hand, it’s not pleasant to think about eating a food that could technically be classified as a pesticide… But on the other hand, I really like baked goods. #-ad_banner-#(In fact, I once opened my presentation at an international investment conference by talking about cake, but that’s a story for another time.) In the end, though, it doesn’t matter what our personal beliefs are. One of the biggest “health” trends is non-GMO. And food companies are jumping on the bandwagon with both feet. And in… Read More

In all honesty, I don’t know where I stand in the genetically-modified crops argument. On one hand, it’s not pleasant to think about eating a food that could technically be classified as a pesticide… But on the other hand, I really like baked goods. #-ad_banner-#(In fact, I once opened my presentation at an international investment conference by talking about cake, but that’s a story for another time.) In the end, though, it doesn’t matter what our personal beliefs are. One of the biggest “health” trends is non-GMO. And food companies are jumping on the bandwagon with both feet. And in a recent NPR story I learned that this shift is causing major changes in the sugar industry, of all places. Here’s a bit of background. The United States gets a lot of its sugar from sugar beets. These beets can be grown in colder climates, and it’s a major agricultural product. About half of the sugar produced in the United States comes from sugar beets. But in 2008, farmers decided to switch their crops from regular sugar beets to genetically-modified sugar beets. The GMO beets were engineered to tolerate a weed killer called glyphosate. You probably know it better as… Read More

The story was picked up by major news sources a few years ago as a “cute” human interest feature. You might have seen the headlines, like “How a Secretary Made and Gave Away $7 Million.” But for me, this wasn’t some light news piece. This was a story that resonated deeply with me. I didn’t know Grace Groner, from Lake Forest, Illinois. From the stories, she was a woman who lived frugally. Her passing was of interest because her three shares of Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) grew into more than 100,000 shares through decades… Read More

The story was picked up by major news sources a few years ago as a “cute” human interest feature. You might have seen the headlines, like “How a Secretary Made and Gave Away $7 Million.” But for me, this wasn’t some light news piece. This was a story that resonated deeply with me. I didn’t know Grace Groner, from Lake Forest, Illinois. From the stories, she was a woman who lived frugally. Her passing was of interest because her three shares of Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) grew into more than 100,000 shares through decades of dividend reinvestment. In total, her estate came in at roughly $7 million. #-ad_banner-#And while I didn’t know Grace Groner, I did know Lillian Calistri. The last time I saw Aunt Lillian was in 1990. I remember that a nephew had the misfortune of addressing her as “Lillian.” She promptly looked us all in the eye and said, “You will continue to call me Aunt Lillian.” We were all over 25 years old at the time, but in Lillian’s world, adulthood was no excuse for bad manners. Read More

The major U.S. stock indices posted their third negative weekly close on Friday. The benchmark S&P 500 ended the week 3.1% off its April 20 high, which came two days after I warned readers going long was a dangerous prospect. Last week’s decline was led by the blue-chip Dow industrials, which lost 1.2%. However, the index is actually in the lead for the year with a modest 0.6% gain. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and small-cap Russell 2000 — which typically lead the broader market both higher and lower — are down 5.8% and 2.9% year to date. Read More

The major U.S. stock indices posted their third negative weekly close on Friday. The benchmark S&P 500 ended the week 3.1% off its April 20 high, which came two days after I warned readers going long was a dangerous prospect. Last week’s decline was led by the blue-chip Dow industrials, which lost 1.2%. However, the index is actually in the lead for the year with a modest 0.6% gain. Meanwhile, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 and small-cap Russell 2000 — which typically lead the broader market both higher and lower — are down 5.8% and 2.9% year to date. #-ad_banner-# From a sector standpoint, last week’s decline was led by real estate (-1.6%) and consumer discretionary (-1.5%). Utilities were the only sector of the S&P 500 to finish in positive territory, gaining 1.2%.   The table below shows that, for the second week in a row, the biggest positive percentage change in sector bet-related assets invested over the past one-month and three-month periods went to energy. Continued expansion would bode well for energy stocks and oil prices in the weeks and months ahead.  Follow… Read More