Analyst Articles

My favorite scene in Martin Scorsese’s hit movie “Casino” is when Nicky (Joe Pesci) expounds on Ace’s (Robert De Niro) uncanny knack for picking winners. Ace’s secret to picking the winning team was finding out all the “inside stuff that nobody else knew,” like whether the quarterback was doing drugs, how the wind velocity was going to affect field goals… all the way down to figuring out the different ways basketballs bounced off the various kinds of wood used on college basketball courts. #-ad_banner-#Ace’s story was based on the true life of Frank “Lefty” Rosenthal, who was arguably the top… Read More

My favorite scene in Martin Scorsese’s hit movie “Casino” is when Nicky (Joe Pesci) expounds on Ace’s (Robert De Niro) uncanny knack for picking winners. Ace’s secret to picking the winning team was finding out all the “inside stuff that nobody else knew,” like whether the quarterback was doing drugs, how the wind velocity was going to affect field goals… all the way down to figuring out the different ways basketballs bounced off the various kinds of wood used on college basketball courts. #-ad_banner-#Ace’s story was based on the true life of Frank “Lefty” Rosenthal, who was arguably the top bookmaker in America for decades. In fact, I admired Rosenthal, not because of his illegal dealings (of which he had many), but because he had the utmost confidence in odds and understood the importance of stacking them in his favor. In a sense, I often borrow from his playbook. While I don’t lie, cheat or steal, I do go the extra length to stack the odds in my favor by layering on as much “edge” as I can in every trade. Where I Found My First Edge I got my first taste of the market was when I was… Read More

Regulatory hurdles have always been a challenge for corporate mergers and acquisitions, but Washington turned the game upside down recently with two sets of rules from the Treasury Department. As with any new and far-reaching regulatory oversight, there will not only be losers affected by the rules, but also winners that are able to take advantage of the new competitive landscape. The Treasury released two sets of rules on April 4: one that pushes profits to low-tax countries in a technique called ‘earnings stripping’ and another that cracks down on corporate inversions. In an inversion, a U.S. company acquires or… Read More

Regulatory hurdles have always been a challenge for corporate mergers and acquisitions, but Washington turned the game upside down recently with two sets of rules from the Treasury Department. As with any new and far-reaching regulatory oversight, there will not only be losers affected by the rules, but also winners that are able to take advantage of the new competitive landscape. The Treasury released two sets of rules on April 4: one that pushes profits to low-tax countries in a technique called ‘earnings stripping’ and another that cracks down on corporate inversions. In an inversion, a U.S. company acquires or merges with a foreign rival and then moves its headquarters overseas to a country with a much lower corporate tax schedule. #-ad_banner-#The new attack against inversions potentially puts U.S. companies at a disadvantage when bidding on foreign companies because they won’t get the benefit of operating in a lower-tax jurisdiction. That opens the door to foreign rivals that can snap up assets without competition from U.S. firms.  One best of breed Israeli company is doing just that to secure a huge lead against others in the sector. This Generic Drug Powerhouse Is About To Get Even Bigger The new… Read More

In the second week of January, U.S. stocks were in freefall — on their way to one of the worst Januarys ever. But as I advised at the time, the selloff created buying opportunities for many excellent stocks that investors were punishing unfairly. I didn’t see a bear market starting then, and even though the correction continued for a couple more weeks, it ended and was followed by a solid recovery. For the year to date, the S&P 500 is now in slightly positive territory. I also advised that “certain stocks are buy-and-hold candidates whenever they’re relatively cheap: large, financially… Read More

In the second week of January, U.S. stocks were in freefall — on their way to one of the worst Januarys ever. But as I advised at the time, the selloff created buying opportunities for many excellent stocks that investors were punishing unfairly. I didn’t see a bear market starting then, and even though the correction continued for a couple more weeks, it ended and was followed by a solid recovery. For the year to date, the S&P 500 is now in slightly positive territory. I also advised that “certain stocks are buy-and-hold candidates whenever they’re relatively cheap: large, financially strong companies with established brands and commanding shares in growing markets.”  That’s still true today. #-ad_banner-#So let’s take a look at the true blues I profiled back in January and see if they’re still worth holding — or buying — now.  3M (NYSE: MMM) is a household name with products found in every home and office in the country — and in much of the rest of the world as well. Known for iconic brands like Scotch and Post-it, 3M makes a mind-boggling 55,000-plus products aimed at consumers, businesses and everyone in between, generating more than $30 billion in… Read More

As you may know, my job as Chief Investment Strategist for Game-Changing Stocks means I’m always searching for what I call “The Next Big Thing” that can deliver triple-digit gains for investors. That means, along with a highly dedicated research team, I spend hundreds of hours every year poring through financial journals, SEC filings, earnings releases, trade publications and many other resources to try to find the next great investment opportunity. #-ad_banner-#Sometimes it’s a revolutionary new piece of technology that could change the world. Other times it’s just an innovative new company that makes… Read More

As you may know, my job as Chief Investment Strategist for Game-Changing Stocks means I’m always searching for what I call “The Next Big Thing” that can deliver triple-digit gains for investors. That means, along with a highly dedicated research team, I spend hundreds of hours every year poring through financial journals, SEC filings, earnings releases, trade publications and many other resources to try to find the next great investment opportunity. #-ad_banner-#Sometimes it’s a revolutionary new piece of technology that could change the world. Other times it’s just an innovative new company that makes life easier for consumers. Still, other times we will venture into somewhat risky territory. This is what I would characterize as “beer money” plays. You should invest carefully in these plays, and only with money that you can afford to lose. These sorts of investments are high-risk allocations that should not comprise a major portion of your aggressive growth portfolio. But if you carefully find one or two of these “beer money” plays that pan out every year, it can dramatically alter the performance of your overall portfolio. I’d like to… Read More

Shares of Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) have had a rocky year in 2016. Last quarter’s weak earnings report showed that the company is still suffering in the wake of the E. coli and other health-related outbreaks.  These health scares have led to a fall in traffic to its stores and Chipotle can’t quite figure how to get customers excited again, much less investors.  #-ad_banner-#Same-store sales (those opened for longer than a year) were down a whopping 29% in Q1. Second quarter same-store sales will likely be down 20%, which is tracking below Wall Street expectations.  Yet, with the stock down 28%… Read More

Shares of Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) have had a rocky year in 2016. Last quarter’s weak earnings report showed that the company is still suffering in the wake of the E. coli and other health-related outbreaks.  These health scares have led to a fall in traffic to its stores and Chipotle can’t quite figure how to get customers excited again, much less investors.  #-ad_banner-#Same-store sales (those opened for longer than a year) were down a whopping 29% in Q1. Second quarter same-store sales will likely be down 20%, which is tracking below Wall Street expectations.  Yet, with the stock down 28% over the past 12 months, it’s now convincing value investors like myself to take a closer look. But I’m finding that Chipotle might still have a lot of issues with no quick or easy fix.  But Is There A Silver Lining? Now, there could be an opportunity for Chipotle to rekindle eaters’ interest. This includes rolling out new menu items and potentially breaking into the heated breakfast market. The company has already announced that it plans to start offering chorizo as a protein option in its restaurants.  Then there’s the breakfast opportunity. Breakfast has proven to be big business… Read More

They’re some of the most talked-about and well-known stocks on the market. But I wouldn’t touch them with a 10-foot pole. That’s because according to the most successful indicator in StreetAuthority’s history, they’re all rated as a “sell.” #-ad_banner-#We spend a lot of time here at StreetAuthority talking about which stocks to buy — and rightfully so. We also dedicate these pages to our thoughts on what it takes to be successful at investing. And knowing what to stay away from is oftentimes just as important as knowing what to buy. So today,… Read More

They’re some of the most talked-about and well-known stocks on the market. But I wouldn’t touch them with a 10-foot pole. That’s because according to the most successful indicator in StreetAuthority’s history, they’re all rated as a “sell.” #-ad_banner-#We spend a lot of time here at StreetAuthority talking about which stocks to buy — and rightfully so. We also dedicate these pages to our thoughts on what it takes to be successful at investing. And knowing what to stay away from is oftentimes just as important as knowing what to buy. So today, I’m going to share with you a list of 10 stocks you should absolutely stay away from. And if you own any of them, consider getting out as soon as possible. According to our indicators, tough times are likely ahead for any investor that owns these stocks. Sure, they won’t underperform forever. Things can change over time. But as of right now, all signs point to more pain ahead. Before I show the list to you, you should know that these numbers come straight from my colleague Jimmy Butts, who runs StreetAuthority’s Maximum Profit system. Jimmy, along… Read More

Short seller Carson Block of Muddy Waters Capital sparked fears of banking weakness when he spoke negatively about Bank of the Ozarks (Nasdaq: OZRK) at the 2016 Sohn Investment Conference last week. Block announced a short position in the stock, warning that its portfolio of real estate construction loans were overextended in markets that may have already peaked.  OZRK plummeted following Block’s remarks, leading to the worst weekly performance in the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE: KBE) since early January. #-ad_banner-#Investors have turned increasingly cautious on banking stocks lately, but despite a weak April jobs report, economic and lending data… Read More

Short seller Carson Block of Muddy Waters Capital sparked fears of banking weakness when he spoke negatively about Bank of the Ozarks (Nasdaq: OZRK) at the 2016 Sohn Investment Conference last week. Block announced a short position in the stock, warning that its portfolio of real estate construction loans were overextended in markets that may have already peaked.  OZRK plummeted following Block’s remarks, leading to the worst weekly performance in the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (NYSE: KBE) since early January. #-ad_banner-#Investors have turned increasingly cautious on banking stocks lately, but despite a weak April jobs report, economic and lending data favors a bullish outlook on banks. And the increased volatility is presenting a rare opportunity for income investors. Real Estate Market Looks Strong While Block hasn’t been able to recreate the success he found shorting Chinese firms, the market still gives him plenty of attention. Shares of OZRK plunged as much as 15% on the day of his presentation, but managed to close with just a 4% loss, suggesting investors didn’t completely buy his logic. ​ Upon closer inspection, Block’s negative outlook on commercial real estate and banking just doesn’t pan out. The U.S. economy is one of the strongest… Read More

If the economic growth attributed to the use of data were a country, it would be the fourth largest economy in the world, just behind Japan in terms of GDP. According to McKinsey & Co., the flow of data has directly contributed to global GDP growth. In fact, the consultancy firm estimates that from 2004 through 2014, “the openness to global flows has raised world GDP by at least 10%. That’s worth $7.8 trillion alone.” #-ad_banner-#In other words, without the virtual flow of data, the world would be $7.8 trillion poorer. In real-world measurements, the number of terabits per second… Read More

If the economic growth attributed to the use of data were a country, it would be the fourth largest economy in the world, just behind Japan in terms of GDP. According to McKinsey & Co., the flow of data has directly contributed to global GDP growth. In fact, the consultancy firm estimates that from 2004 through 2014, “the openness to global flows has raised world GDP by at least 10%. That’s worth $7.8 trillion alone.” #-ad_banner-#In other words, without the virtual flow of data, the world would be $7.8 trillion poorer. In real-world measurements, the number of terabits per second — a measure of data flows — is 45 times higher now than it was less than a decade ago. This means that data is not only an efficiency, but a good, with a tangible value. And while you can’t trade it on the CME like gold or soybeans, you can trade its leveraging effect by selecting the companies making the most of using data to boost efficiencies and reach customers… or by investing in the digital infrastructure itself. For example, we’ve seen a huge jump in the number of ecommerce companies and transactions. By some estimates 10-15% of the… Read More

“Buy American” isn’t only an admonition in support of U.S. manufacturers. In recent years, it’s also been the best advice for stock investors. U.S. stocks have radically outperformed shares of non-U.S. companies, driven by the superior performance of the U.S. economy relative to Europe, as well as our diversification relative to energy-heavy markets such as Canada’s and Russia’s. Even the once-soaring BRIC markets have suffered of late, as the rate of economic growth in China, India and Brazil has slowed considerably, with storm clouds on the horizon. #-ad_banner-#The numbers tell the story: for the three years ended April 30, the… Read More

“Buy American” isn’t only an admonition in support of U.S. manufacturers. In recent years, it’s also been the best advice for stock investors. U.S. stocks have radically outperformed shares of non-U.S. companies, driven by the superior performance of the U.S. economy relative to Europe, as well as our diversification relative to energy-heavy markets such as Canada’s and Russia’s. Even the once-soaring BRIC markets have suffered of late, as the rate of economic growth in China, India and Brazil has slowed considerably, with storm clouds on the horizon. #-ad_banner-#The numbers tell the story: for the three years ended April 30, the S&P 500 generated a total return of 39%, vs. 3.7% for the MSCI EAFE Index (EFA) of international stocks. That outperformance has dampened American investors’ enthusiasm for foreign stocks. The U.S. dollar’s strong rally during that period only reinforced the bias.  But in recent weeks the dollar has dipped, signaling that the euro and other currencies are staging a cyclical comeback. And in a larger sense, ignoring the rest of the world means writing off dozens of excellent companies — some of which do significant business in the United States. So let’s take a look at two such stocks that represent… Read More