Tom Vician, Chief Investment Strategist of Alpha Trader, updates each portfolio with up to 10 of the highest-rated "Alpha Score" stocks twice a month. Tom is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with more than 20 years' of trading experience and a profitable history of using trading systems to manage money for investors. Tom began at Merrill Lynch, working for two of the largest producing brokers as a Series 7 licensed assistant before starting a yearlong apprenticeship with one of the world's top traders. There he learned the nuances of trend following, system development, risk management and technical analysis. Tom moved on to managing money full time, and in 2006, became portfolio manager for a $20 million hedge fund/commodity pool operator. Currently, Tom manages a portfolio of private growth equity assets and develops quantitative trading systems. His Absolute Return Program offers back-tested, algorithmically-based portfolio management diversified across equities, fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities. Tom has earned his Series 3 (Commodity) and Series 65 (Investment Advisor Representative) licenses, and has published educational white papers for the Market Technicians Association, of which he co-chairs the Austin chapter.

Analyst Articles

Natural resource stocks were the worst-performing group in 2015, with the sector plummeting nearly 27%. But since its January lows, this group has been on a tear, more than doubling the return of the benchmark S&P 500.  That’s right, the long-dormant sector finally looks like it’s back from the dead.  Up until a few weeks ago, natural resource stocks had been mauled by a multiyear bear market. At its 2016 low, the sector was down nearly 50% from its June 2014 high. Adding insult to injury, the decline lasted twice as long as the 2008 bear market.  The… Read More

Natural resource stocks were the worst-performing group in 2015, with the sector plummeting nearly 27%. But since its January lows, this group has been on a tear, more than doubling the return of the benchmark S&P 500.  That’s right, the long-dormant sector finally looks like it’s back from the dead.  Up until a few weeks ago, natural resource stocks had been mauled by a multiyear bear market. At its 2016 low, the sector was down nearly 50% from its June 2014 high. Adding insult to injury, the decline lasted twice as long as the 2008 bear market.  The sector’s poor performance was due to a trifecta of bearish factors that slammed precious metals and industrial commodities. #-ad_banner-#For starters, both rising interest rates and a rally in the U.S. dollar weighed heavily on precious metals, resulting in a four-year secular bear market in gold. The dollar has been rising on improving U.S. economic conditions and declining prospects in Europe. Economic weakness in Europe has the European Central Bank working to weaken the value of the euro, which makes the greenback stronger by comparison. Since gold is priced in U.S. dollars, when the value of the dollar goes up, the… Read More

Two years ago, I wrote about why I disliked regional bank stocks using Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) as a glaring example. Two years later, the stock is 18% lower since despite slow but noticeable improvements in the U.S. economy and repair in the financial sector. Most banks have had enough time to adapt to the regulatory environment. So why the poor performance? I drilled down into Regions’ numbers and those of its peers and pulled out a comparison between CEO compensation growth versus stock performance. Here’s what I found.   CEO Pay 5yr Growth Stock Price 5yr Growth (Excluding Dividends) Regions… Read More

Two years ago, I wrote about why I disliked regional bank stocks using Regions Financial (NYSE: RF) as a glaring example. Two years later, the stock is 18% lower since despite slow but noticeable improvements in the U.S. economy and repair in the financial sector. Most banks have had enough time to adapt to the regulatory environment. So why the poor performance? I drilled down into Regions’ numbers and those of its peers and pulled out a comparison between CEO compensation growth versus stock performance. Here’s what I found.   CEO Pay 5yr Growth Stock Price 5yr Growth (Excluding Dividends) Regions Financial Corp (NYSE: RF) 13.8% annually 3.9% annually Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) 0% annually 14.4% annually SunTrustBanks Inc (NYSE: STI) (14.7%) annually 7.5% anually Regions’ CEO, O.B. Grayson Hall got paid the most for the worst performance. Granted, Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) is a much bigger institution and plays at a different level than Regions, which is strictly a regional entity. But Wells Fargo handsomely rewarded shareholders while keeping executive compensation in line. SunTrust (NYSE: STI) is a closer comparison, but as you can see, its CEO actually took a steady pay cut (I’m sure he’ll figure out… Read More

The latest rumor around the global water cooler that Russia and OPEC-leader Saudi Arabia have agreed to freeze oil production at January or February levels has been dispelled… for now. The OPEC leaders meeting in Doha failed to reach an agreement to cap production, with Iran bowing out of the meeting altogether, and refusing to pull back on its oil production. As a result, oil prices took a big tumble. Brent crude fell a harsh 7% on the news. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell almost as much at 6.6%. #-ad_banner-#But does a “no deal” result from the OPEC Doha meeting… Read More

The latest rumor around the global water cooler that Russia and OPEC-leader Saudi Arabia have agreed to freeze oil production at January or February levels has been dispelled… for now. The OPEC leaders meeting in Doha failed to reach an agreement to cap production, with Iran bowing out of the meeting altogether, and refusing to pull back on its oil production. As a result, oil prices took a big tumble. Brent crude fell a harsh 7% on the news. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell almost as much at 6.6%. #-ad_banner-#But does a “no deal” result from the OPEC Doha meeting mean production caps are off the table? Or that OPEC wouldn’t seek an alliance outside its cartel? Hardly. In response to the meeting, Qatar’s energy minister Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada said, “We of course respect [Iran’s] position… The freeze could be more effective definitely if major producers, be it from OPEC members like Iran and others, as well as non-OPEC members, are included in the freeze.” Al-Sada said that OPEC members need more time. Which says to me that this won’t be the last we hear of production caps. Indeed, this wasn’t the first time we’d heard about potential cooperation… Read More

Two weeks ago, I made a major announcement about StreetAuthority’s premium newsletter lineup. In short, two of our leading analysts — Amy Calistri and Jimmy Butts — have teamed up to create a new premium newsletter. As I mentioned back then, the goal of this newsletter will be to feature the absolute best stock picks for investors to hold in their core portfolio. I also mentioned that two of our former publications, Stock of the Month and Top 10 Stocks, would fold into this exciting new letter. #-ad_banner-#Today, I’m happy to pass along word… Read More

Two weeks ago, I made a major announcement about StreetAuthority’s premium newsletter lineup. In short, two of our leading analysts — Amy Calistri and Jimmy Butts — have teamed up to create a new premium newsletter. As I mentioned back then, the goal of this newsletter will be to feature the absolute best stock picks for investors to hold in their core portfolio. I also mentioned that two of our former publications, Stock of the Month and Top 10 Stocks, would fold into this exciting new letter. #-ad_banner-#Today, I’m happy to pass along word Amy and Jimmy’s first Top Stock Advisor issue is out and available to current subscribers. Those readers can find it here. Now, rather than share their first pick with you (which wouldn’t be fair to current subscribers), I’d like to touch on an important point they made in their inaugural issue that I think is far, far more valuable than any one single stock pick. You see, Amy and Jimmy are of the same opinion I am when it comes to successful investing. It doesn’t take a genius-level IQ or any sort… Read More

According to Bloomberg, “Traders added more than $1 billion to U.S.-traded emerging-market stocks and bond ETFs this month through April 15.” That puts inflows for the year at $4.5 billion… and it’s a major shift in the markets. Analysts are saying we’ve passed the low point, and that the rally could continue. But what’s behind this push higher? #-ad_banner-#The answer is two-fold. First, news out of China is showing some economic stabilization. The country’s GDP growth rate clocked in at 6.7% for the first three month of 2016, and could remain at that level through 2020. Some folks say… Read More

According to Bloomberg, “Traders added more than $1 billion to U.S.-traded emerging-market stocks and bond ETFs this month through April 15.” That puts inflows for the year at $4.5 billion… and it’s a major shift in the markets. Analysts are saying we’ve passed the low point, and that the rally could continue. But what’s behind this push higher? #-ad_banner-#The answer is two-fold. First, news out of China is showing some economic stabilization. The country’s GDP growth rate clocked in at 6.7% for the first three month of 2016, and could remain at that level through 2020. Some folks say this is bad news, as it’s a far cry from the screaming double-digit growth of the last decade. But I say it’s good news, as stable GDP growth in an economy transitioning from developing to advanced is almost unheard of. Many economies in this transition stop growing altogether, or even experience some contraction. Stable growth from an economy that makes up more than 37% of global GDP? I’ll take that. And apparently, so will emerging market investors. The second factor is a stable and recovering U.S. economy. After China, the United States is the world’s second biggest economy, and… Read More

I’m worried for the future, and what it holds for retirees. Apparently I’m not alone… #-ad_banner-#A recent survey found that 61% of all respondents feared outliving their retirement savings more than they feared death. I understand why people are anxious. Retirement accounts got hit hard by market events like the dot-com bust, the housing meltdown and the subsequent financial crisis. Some people stopped investing entirely because they were afraid to put their life savings at risk. But at the same time, savings accounts and certificates of deposit aren’t… Read More

I’m worried for the future, and what it holds for retirees. Apparently I’m not alone… #-ad_banner-#A recent survey found that 61% of all respondents feared outliving their retirement savings more than they feared death. I understand why people are anxious. Retirement accounts got hit hard by market events like the dot-com bust, the housing meltdown and the subsequent financial crisis. Some people stopped investing entirely because they were afraid to put their life savings at risk. But at the same time, savings accounts and certificates of deposit aren’t even beating inflation. They’re just not the right tools with which to build a healthy retirement. That’s why I’ve spent the last several years developing… refining… and perfecting a new kind of retirement plan. I designed it specifically for those in or approaching retirement with three main goals in mind: To maximize income, maximize growth, and minimize risk… all while collecting an average of one or more dividend “paychecks” per day. That’s exactly why I call it the Daily Paycheck Retirement Strategy. The system I designed is… Read More

While following a rising trend is usually the best way to make money in the stock market, chart reading can tell us where that trend is likely to run out of steam. And when we have a big stock like home improvement retailer Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) soaring more than 20% in two and a half months, we really should see what the chart has to say about selling. Let’s start with the big picture. A weekly chart shows LOW tracing out a pattern that is rather similar to that of the S&P 500 — a big rally after the 2011… Read More

While following a rising trend is usually the best way to make money in the stock market, chart reading can tell us where that trend is likely to run out of steam. And when we have a big stock like home improvement retailer Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW) soaring more than 20% in two and a half months, we really should see what the chart has to say about selling. Let’s start with the big picture. A weekly chart shows LOW tracing out a pattern that is rather similar to that of the S&P 500 — a big rally after the 2011 correction followed by a wide, two-year trading range that is still in place. With trading ranges, I like to apply stochastics as a momentum indicator, and right now it says the stock is overbought. The near-term rally off the February lows was fast and furious, but now the stock looks tired. In fact, according to this indicator, it is more overbought now than it was at any other price peak since it first moved into the range in 2014 following a multimonth rally. Read More

Technologists tell us we’re in the early stages of the third wave of the Internet: the Internet of Things (IoT). It follows the first wave, in which people adopted the Internet through desktop computers, and the second wave, in which the world adopted use of the Internet through mobile devices, such as smartphones. In this third wave, millions of people around the world are adopting apps, devices and systems that integrate the Internet with our day-to-day lives in new ways. Within the next decade, every machine, vehicle and electronic device will incorporate features that connect to the Internet and make… Read More

Technologists tell us we’re in the early stages of the third wave of the Internet: the Internet of Things (IoT). It follows the first wave, in which people adopted the Internet through desktop computers, and the second wave, in which the world adopted use of the Internet through mobile devices, such as smartphones. In this third wave, millions of people around the world are adopting apps, devices and systems that integrate the Internet with our day-to-day lives in new ways. Within the next decade, every machine, vehicle and electronic device will incorporate features that connect to the Internet and make use of its advantages — including remote monitoring and control, data accumulation and retrieval, and automation of functions now done manually. #-ad_banner-#Some examples of IoT already in widespread use are Fitbits, credit-card-accepting parking meters and smart TVs. More and more cars are equipped with Internet connections, and it’s no longer a novelty when a friend says he can control his thermostat or lock his front door remotely. From smoke detectors that automatically call the fire department to factory machinery that responds to orders made 5,000 miles away, the IoT will soon become a fact of life. It’s estimated that 90%… Read More

It started out as an experiment. It wound up being my favorite income strategy: the markets “atm machine”. #-ad_banner-#A little more than six years ago, StreetAuthority approached me with an idea. They wanted me to build a portfolio of reliable dividend stocks that would pay out more than 30 dividend checks a month — one for every day of the year. In order to show how serious they were, they even gave me $200,000 and a dedicated brokerage account to get started. I must admit, I was a little skeptical at first. The idea seemed too good to be true. Read More

It started out as an experiment. It wound up being my favorite income strategy: the markets “atm machine”. #-ad_banner-#A little more than six years ago, StreetAuthority approached me with an idea. They wanted me to build a portfolio of reliable dividend stocks that would pay out more than 30 dividend checks a month — one for every day of the year. In order to show how serious they were, they even gave me $200,000 and a dedicated brokerage account to get started. I must admit, I was a little skeptical at first. The idea seemed too good to be true. But in just over six years — 2,361 dividends and more than $99,000 worth of dividend income later — the results have been far better than I could have imagined. Since I started my portfolio back in December 2009, my initial $200,000 investment has grown to more than $316,592, giving me a total return of more than 58% in a little more than six years. As of this month, the total dividends I’ve received amount to $99,651.   The Daily Paycheck Strategy Helped Me Pocket Nearly $100,000 In Dividends In its first full year of operation, my… Read More