The market logged one of the worst starts to a year with the S&P 500 down more than 5% in January. This doesn’t bode well for the rest of 2016. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, a win or loss in January has accurately predicted the course of the year more than 75% of the time. Whether or not you believe in the so-called “January Effect,” there’s a lot working against the bulls. Namely, revenues for companies in the S&P 500 have declined for four consecutive quarters, and we have gotten confirmation of an earnings recession with two quarters of… Read More

The market logged one of the worst starts to a year with the S&P 500 down more than 5% in January. This doesn’t bode well for the rest of 2016. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, a win or loss in January has accurately predicted the course of the year more than 75% of the time. Whether or not you believe in the so-called “January Effect,” there’s a lot working against the bulls. Namely, revenues for companies in the S&P 500 have declined for four consecutive quarters, and we have gotten confirmation of an earnings recession with two quarters of declining profits. #-ad_banner-#Much of this is being blamed on the stronger U.S. dollar, which makes foreign sales worth less. In the past two years, the euro has lost 20% of its value against the dollar. This means that an American company that sold $1 million worth of goods in Europe in 2014 is now getting just $800,000 for those same sales. To maintain the same level of profitability, companies could increase the price of goods. So, the same iPhone that cost 500 euros in 2014 would now cost 625 euros. This kind of price increase usually turns off customers, though,… Read More

In my 23 years as a trader and money manager, I’ve never seen anything that’s anywhere near as effective at finding stocks before they break out than what I’m about to share with you. And believe me, I’ve seen it all over the course of my more-than-two-decade career.  I’ve been trading and managing money since I graduated college — from the roaring technology bull market of the 1990s to the bear market of 2001 and financial collapse of 2008. I worked with famed technical trader Ed Seykota and helped him develop and test one of the very first quantitative relative… Read More

In my 23 years as a trader and money manager, I’ve never seen anything that’s anywhere near as effective at finding stocks before they break out than what I’m about to share with you. And believe me, I’ve seen it all over the course of my more-than-two-decade career.  I’ve been trading and managing money since I graduated college — from the roaring technology bull market of the 1990s to the bear market of 2001 and financial collapse of 2008. I worked with famed technical trader Ed Seykota and helped him develop and test one of the very first quantitative relative strength stock trading systems. I managed $20 million for a hedge fund. Along the way, I studied and tested dozens of technical indicators and triggers. #-ad_banner-# I even went so far as to become a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). This certification designed by the Market Technician’s Association signifies mastery of technical analysis. Thanks to the brutal, three-part, 10-hour test required for certification, it’s a pretty exclusive club — with just 1,400 members in the entire United States. In fact, only 57% of those… Read More

When M&A specialist BC Partners took PetSmart Inc. private nearly a year ago, investors lost a top entree into the $60-billion pet products and services market. As a publicly traded entity, PetSmart showed strong growth and market leadership, and I’m certain it would have remained an excellent long-term investment if BC Partners hadn’t snapped it up. But with PetSmart out of the picture, those looking for a pure play on the pet care boom have much slimmer pickings. For example, despite a 4.5% dividend yield, I’m not a huge fan of nationwide pet pharmacy PetMed Express (Nasdaq: PETS) because its… Read More

When M&A specialist BC Partners took PetSmart Inc. private nearly a year ago, investors lost a top entree into the $60-billion pet products and services market. As a publicly traded entity, PetSmart showed strong growth and market leadership, and I’m certain it would have remained an excellent long-term investment if BC Partners hadn’t snapped it up. But with PetSmart out of the picture, those looking for a pure play on the pet care boom have much slimmer pickings. For example, despite a 4.5% dividend yield, I’m not a huge fan of nationwide pet pharmacy PetMed Express (Nasdaq: PETS) because its business has stagnated and total returns from its stock have been trailing the S&P 500’s by a wide margin for years. #-ad_banner-#PetMed has the right idea, though, by being in the pet health market, where affluent consumers are increasingly willing to pay up for expensive tests and treatments. In that environment, PetMed might still be expanding if it was casting a wider net, like VCA Inc. (Nasdaq: WOOF). While not a household name, VCA is quite large, with a $4-billion market cap that’s 12 times larger than PetMed Express’s. And it’s taking full advantage of the growth opportunities available in… Read More

January was a volatile month in the market. The S&P 500 was down 5.1%, and we saw a number of daily swings — up and down — of 1% or more. If you ever wanted a test in risk tolerance, January has given you one. If you had a few sleepless nights, you might want to stick with less volatile securities going forward. Or you might want to sell the one or two holdings that have caused you the most worry. #-ad_banner-#I don’t like a down or volatile market any better than the next investor. But I’ve learned not to… Read More

January was a volatile month in the market. The S&P 500 was down 5.1%, and we saw a number of daily swings — up and down — of 1% or more. If you ever wanted a test in risk tolerance, January has given you one. If you had a few sleepless nights, you might want to stick with less volatile securities going forward. Or you might want to sell the one or two holdings that have caused you the most worry. #-ad_banner-#I don’t like a down or volatile market any better than the next investor. But I’ve learned not to worry about day-to-day gyrations. For one thing, the portfolio in my premium newsletter, The Daily Paycheck, isn’t as volatile as the market. So far, I’m only down 1.7% year-to-date. Sure, it’s not ideal, but it’s far better than what the overall market has done so far. That’s mostly due to the income that streams in on a regular basis. Dividend-paying securities act as a buffer against the bumps. I also know that, through dividend reinvestment, I’m continually adding shares at lower prices and higher yields. And that gives me a big advantage over the long term. That’s not to say… Read More

The major U.S. indices closed sharply lower last week, following a sharp-but-short-lived, two-week broader market rally. #-ad_banner-#Last week’s sell-off was led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, off 6%, and small-cap Russell 2000, down 4.8%. This weakness could be especially problematic since high-beta technology stocks and small caps typically lead the broader market higher and lower. The only sectors to post meaningful gains were materials, boosted by a strong rebound in gold prices, which I will discuss in more detail in this report, and defensive utilities.  The table below shows that, according to Asbury Research’s own metric, the biggest inflow into… Read More

The major U.S. indices closed sharply lower last week, following a sharp-but-short-lived, two-week broader market rally. #-ad_banner-#Last week’s sell-off was led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, off 6%, and small-cap Russell 2000, down 4.8%. This weakness could be especially problematic since high-beta technology stocks and small caps typically lead the broader market higher and lower. The only sectors to post meaningful gains were materials, boosted by a strong rebound in gold prices, which I will discuss in more detail in this report, and defensive utilities.  The table below shows that, according to Asbury Research’s own metric, the biggest inflow into sector bet-related ETFs over the past one-week, one-month and three-months periods went to utilities, fueling last week’s strength in that sector. As long as these positive inflows continue, utilities are likely to remain strong and continue outperforming. Market At Important Crossroad Since I warned traders in the Dec. 14 Market Outlook that it was time to adopt defensive strategies to protect assets in the short term, the S&P 500 lost 6.6% through Friday’s close. The decline resulted in a test of important support at 1,821 on Jan. 20, a level I identified in the Jan. 19 report. After… Read More

Shares of oil stocks plunged again as the price of West Texas Intermediate wiped out nearly half of its late-January rebound. Sluggish demand growth and stubbornly high supply has had investors whipsawed for months.  In all the confusion, it is difficult not to look at the long-term picture and be positive on oil and shares of energy companies. The dramatic cut in the North American rig count has to eventually curtail supply. Even on more uncertain forecasts, China and India are both expected to grow their economies by nearly 7% this year with higher energy demand in tow.  … Read More

Shares of oil stocks plunged again as the price of West Texas Intermediate wiped out nearly half of its late-January rebound. Sluggish demand growth and stubbornly high supply has had investors whipsawed for months.  In all the confusion, it is difficult not to look at the long-term picture and be positive on oil and shares of energy companies. The dramatic cut in the North American rig count has to eventually curtail supply. Even on more uncertain forecasts, China and India are both expected to grow their economies by nearly 7% this year with higher energy demand in tow.   #-ad_banner-#So far, Mr. Market has made a fool of the long-term perspective. Oil prices have fallen consistently since mid-2014 and more investors throw in the towel every day. The argument is to buy when there’s blood in the streets — but that’s not so easy to do when you’re already bleeding. How can you take advantage of the long-term upside for oil without the short-term pain? It turns out, Warren Buffett may have found the perfect balance. What’s The Future For Oil? Right now, no one knows what exactly to expect from the price of oil. No sooner… Read More

I love to read stories about the rise and fall of business ventures. Not only are they entertaining, but these case studies can also reveal some important investing insights.  One in particular that has stuck with me over the years is the tale of Greyhound Bus Lines. Back in 1994, the transportation company was running on fumes. It had recently made the difficult decision to raise fares, which didn’t sit well with customers. Passenger volume was declining sharply, taking a heavy toll on revenues and earnings.  #-ad_banner-#Even more troubling, there was an ongoing feud between management and labor. Bus drivers… Read More

I love to read stories about the rise and fall of business ventures. Not only are they entertaining, but these case studies can also reveal some important investing insights.  One in particular that has stuck with me over the years is the tale of Greyhound Bus Lines. Back in 1994, the transportation company was running on fumes. It had recently made the difficult decision to raise fares, which didn’t sit well with customers. Passenger volume was declining sharply, taking a heavy toll on revenues and earnings.  #-ad_banner-#Even more troubling, there was an ongoing feud between management and labor. Bus drivers had already walked off the job a few years earlier in a lengthy strike. The two sides eventually reached a delicate agreement, but tensions were starting to flare again.  These issues created quite a bit of anxiety for investors. But the market really panicked when credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the firm’s debt to “CCC,” a level indicating high risk of default and bankruptcy. Greyhound shares plummeted as low as $1.50, and the outlook was grim. About that same time, a small group of investors dug into the financial statements and saw something that the crowd had missed… Read More

Imagine a sailboat on a calm, windless day. Not much movement, right? Now picture a seven-mile-per-hour steady breeze filling the sails. See the boat moving steadily across the water? #-ad_banner-#From an investment standpoint, that’s the difference between a good company in a slow-growth industry and a good company in a fast-growing industry. Stocks with the wind at their backs move higher faster. They’re less dependent on good luck, and they’re less vulnerable to bad news.  So regardless of short-term market dynamics or medium-term economic cycles, it’s almost always a good time to invest in reasonably priced stocks benefiting from long-term… Read More

Imagine a sailboat on a calm, windless day. Not much movement, right? Now picture a seven-mile-per-hour steady breeze filling the sails. See the boat moving steadily across the water? #-ad_banner-#From an investment standpoint, that’s the difference between a good company in a slow-growth industry and a good company in a fast-growing industry. Stocks with the wind at their backs move higher faster. They’re less dependent on good luck, and they’re less vulnerable to bad news.  So regardless of short-term market dynamics or medium-term economic cycles, it’s almost always a good time to invest in reasonably priced stocks benefiting from long-term trends. The “graying of America” is one of the most-cited trends. Investors are starting to catch on to the long-term potential of alternative energy, too. Another strong long-term trend worth attention is the continued rise of robotics, or automation, in everyday life. Industrial processes have used robotics for many years, replacing factory workers with machines that can perform assembly tasks quickly and precisely without getting tired. There are well over 200,000 robots in industrial use around the world today, primarily in the manufacturing of automobiles, electronics, metals and chemicals. Robots are also used routinely now in medical, energy exploration and… Read More

Today I want to tell you about a strategy that could make you a lot of money. You probably haven’t heard much about it. That’s because up until recently, our publishers made this investing system available only to a select group of loyal StreetAuthority readers. But now, we’re ready to open it up to the wider public. #-ad_banner-#First, a little background…  This system comes on the back of about three and a half years of development. We compiled a motley crew of experts to build it: two StreetAuthority veterans, a licensed, Certified Market Technician (CMT), an accountant, a financial advisor,… Read More

Today I want to tell you about a strategy that could make you a lot of money. You probably haven’t heard much about it. That’s because up until recently, our publishers made this investing system available only to a select group of loyal StreetAuthority readers. But now, we’re ready to open it up to the wider public. #-ad_banner-#First, a little background…  This system comes on the back of about three and a half years of development. We compiled a motley crew of experts to build it: two StreetAuthority veterans, a licensed, Certified Market Technician (CMT), an accountant, a financial advisor, and even a college-aged computer whiz.  Needless to say, each of these team members brought their own unique expertise to the table — and each had their own strong opinions about “what works” in the world of investing.  After spending countless hours reading through academic research, building computer algorithms and backtesting results, the team came up with a system that we think could make you more money in the stock market than anything we’ve ever created before. In short: it solves one of the most common problems every investor faces — how to get bigger gains in a shorter amount… Read More

After stumbling badly on negative publicity about foodborne illness at some of its restaurants, the fast casual dining industry’s once unstoppable frontrunner finally caught a break: On February 1, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) declared Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) free of the nasty E. coli bug responsible for the illness outbreak. #-ad_banner-#During the summer and fall of last year, the outbreak affected five dozen Chipotle customers in 11 states, prompting the temporary shut-down of 43 of the chain’s locations. The situation has run its course, the CDC concluded, because no new cases have been reported since… Read More

After stumbling badly on negative publicity about foodborne illness at some of its restaurants, the fast casual dining industry’s once unstoppable frontrunner finally caught a break: On February 1, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) declared Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) free of the nasty E. coli bug responsible for the illness outbreak. #-ad_banner-#During the summer and fall of last year, the outbreak affected five dozen Chipotle customers in 11 states, prompting the temporary shut-down of 43 of the chain’s locations. The situation has run its course, the CDC concluded, because no new cases have been reported since December 21. Besides sullying Chipotle’s reputation for safely providing “food with integrity,” the outbreak is wreaking havoc on the company’s stock and financials. Shares of Chipotle fell more than 40% since the news broke, and its latest quarterly report can only be described as ugly. Plus, there’s still fallout from a couple other recent outbreaks with another foodborne microbe (norovirus) involving single Chipotle locations in California and Massachusetts. Yet this all amounts to what may well be the best value opportunity of the year. To be sure, it will take time for Chipotle to mend fences… Read More