Although I think the bears’ case for a stock market decline is getting stronger, there has yet to be a trigger to get them fired up. Until that happens, we can miss a lot of opportunity sitting on the sidelines.  That’s why I’m currently looking for short-term bullish opportunities. And right now I like workforce staffing company ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN). This week, the stock, along with many of its peers, broke out from a month-long consolidation pattern.  Manpower sports a good technical configuration, trading above all of its long- and short-term moving averages. When a stock… Read More

Although I think the bears’ case for a stock market decline is getting stronger, there has yet to be a trigger to get them fired up. Until that happens, we can miss a lot of opportunity sitting on the sidelines.  That’s why I’m currently looking for short-term bullish opportunities. And right now I like workforce staffing company ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN). This week, the stock, along with many of its peers, broke out from a month-long consolidation pattern.  Manpower sports a good technical configuration, trading above all of its long- and short-term moving averages. When a stock trades above all relevant moving averages, we know the trend is up regardless of your trading time frame. #-ad_banner-# MAN’s November dip bottomed out in the vicinity of the key 50-day and 200-day averages. And throughout late November, it found support at shorter-term averages from the 30-day to the 10-day.  Therefore, we have to conclude that the rising trend from the September low remains intact despite what looked to be excessive volatility last month. With that in mind, Tuesday’s upside breakout from a one-month countertrend decline looks buyable. And, as mentioned, many of Manpower’s peers are… Read More

Back in September, I noted how comments stemming from media giant Disney’s (NYSE: DIS) third-quarter earnings announcement caused a broad selloff in the media sector. Before I update you on the situation (including a new way to profit), let’s recap what I said:       On August 4, media entertainment giant Disney reported quarterly earnings. In its conference call, management said that cable subscriptions to its ESPN network would fall about 1% in 2016. For some reason, this seemed to shock investors, although this was not new news. The so-called “cord-cutting” movement — that is, consumers… Read More

Back in September, I noted how comments stemming from media giant Disney’s (NYSE: DIS) third-quarter earnings announcement caused a broad selloff in the media sector. Before I update you on the situation (including a new way to profit), let’s recap what I said:       On August 4, media entertainment giant Disney reported quarterly earnings. In its conference call, management said that cable subscriptions to its ESPN network would fall about 1% in 2016. For some reason, this seemed to shock investors, although this was not new news. The so-called “cord-cutting” movement — that is, consumers who choose to drop their cable services in favor of cheaper streaming alternatives like Netflix and Hulu — has been a known factor for some time. Nevertheless, shares of Disney took a dive, and are off nearly 15% since then. I went on to note how the loss in subscribers should have already been a known-quantity among investors and thus priced into the stock. It was also well-known that ESPN had undertaken a program of cost cutting measures, which had yet to take full effect. Combine that with ESPN’s unique position among cable networks and Disney’s upcoming… Read More

You’ve probably seen coverage on the news: This week marks a summit of global leaders to talk about the challenges of climate change, and how they will pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Named the “twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties” by the United Nations, or COP21 for short, the Paris talks include delegations from 195 countries, representing most of the world and all of its largest economies. Unlike past conferences intended to address climate change, this one is expected to result in a global plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions considerably over the next decade through legally… Read More

You’ve probably seen coverage on the news: This week marks a summit of global leaders to talk about the challenges of climate change, and how they will pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Named the “twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties” by the United Nations, or COP21 for short, the Paris talks include delegations from 195 countries, representing most of the world and all of its largest economies. Unlike past conferences intended to address climate change, this one is expected to result in a global plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions considerably over the next decade through legally binding commitments — in effect, a global climate change treaty. Many countries, including the United States and China, have already made formal commitments to reduce emissions; there’s also stronger political support than ever before to do so — outside of the United States, where climate-change skepticism remains a political force, the overwhelming consensus is that action is urgently needed, supported by scientific evidence that no credible scientist disputes. The biggest potential snag to an international climate change treaty: the largest emerging markets, such as India and Brazil, which plan to expand energy use dramatically in the coming decades and fear… Read More

The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond is quite possibly the worst investment option out there right now… even your Uncle Dave’s coin and baseball card collection might offer better long-term returns. Let’s forget for a moment about the Fed’s intention to raise interest rates, possibly as soon as December (which will put downward pressure on bond prices). And let’s forget that the longer a bond’s duration, the greater its sensitivity to interest rate movements. So with every basis point uptick, nothing will feel the pain more acutely than the 30-year “long bond.” Let’s even forget that Uncle Sam’s credit rating has… Read More

The 30-year U.S. Treasury Bond is quite possibly the worst investment option out there right now… even your Uncle Dave’s coin and baseball card collection might offer better long-term returns. Let’s forget for a moment about the Fed’s intention to raise interest rates, possibly as soon as December (which will put downward pressure on bond prices). And let’s forget that the longer a bond’s duration, the greater its sensitivity to interest rate movements. So with every basis point uptick, nothing will feel the pain more acutely than the 30-year “long bond.” Let’s even forget that Uncle Sam’s credit rating has already been downgraded by at least one ratings agency in the past… Even if interest rates don’t rise and Congress miraculously balances the budget — a best-case scenario, if you own Treasurys — you’re still tying up your capital for the next three decades at a paltry rate of around 3%.  But here’s the kicker: when your principal is finally repaid in the distant future, those dollars will have lost much of their purchasing power. Just ask anyone who bought one of these bonds back in 1983. Let’s say they loaned the government $30,000 — enough money to buy three… Read More

Mistakes of the past mean little to anyone in the modern banking industry. And now an unforgivable trend may have just hit its tipping point. I want to say upfront that this problem alone won’t be as devastating to the global economy as the housing bubble and burst was. But it could end our nice little — albeit slow — recovery for a while… and it certainly could affect the rate at which the Fed tightens its monetary policy. And if any other major economic disaster accompanies this problem — like, say, a few countries exiting the euro or a… Read More

Mistakes of the past mean little to anyone in the modern banking industry. And now an unforgivable trend may have just hit its tipping point. I want to say upfront that this problem alone won’t be as devastating to the global economy as the housing bubble and burst was. But it could end our nice little — albeit slow — recovery for a while… and it certainly could affect the rate at which the Fed tightens its monetary policy. And if any other major economic disaster accompanies this problem — like, say, a few countries exiting the euro or a full-blown Japanese depression — this could be the trigger to send the U.S. economy over the cliff.  U.S. Banks Are Going To Extremes To Increase Profits Many banking institutions have struggled these past several years. I know, it sounds absurd that after all that government money through TARP and other giveaway programs, banks could still be in trouble. But it’s precisely because of all this so-called “free money” that they are struggling. You see, the bottom line for a typical bank is comprised of the margin between how much they spend on short-term financing of their own and how… Read More

While investors are hyper-focused on retailers this time of year, I see an overlooked opportunity in a prominent department store chain. Macy’s (NYSE: M) popped 8% on July 15 when activist investor Starboard Value announced an undisclosed stake and plans to push for a spinoff of the company’s real estate properties into a real estate investment trust (REIT).  The month before, Macy’s CFO Karen Hoguet cooled REIT rumors, saying the company preferred to control its locations. But investors continued to hold out hope, as similar strategies had sent shares of companies like Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) and Darden… Read More

While investors are hyper-focused on retailers this time of year, I see an overlooked opportunity in a prominent department store chain. Macy’s (NYSE: M) popped 8% on July 15 when activist investor Starboard Value announced an undisclosed stake and plans to push for a spinoff of the company’s real estate properties into a real estate investment trust (REIT).  The month before, Macy’s CFO Karen Hoguet cooled REIT rumors, saying the company preferred to control its locations. But investors continued to hold out hope, as similar strategies had sent shares of companies like Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) skyward. But those hopes were dashed when third-quarter results were released earlier this month. Management expressed its opposition to a spinoff and lowered its full-year outlook — a one-two punch that sent shares plunging 14% in one day. With REIT speculation dead and short-term traders shaken out, the shares look like a great bargain. #-ad_banner-# Real Estate Still Holds A Great Deal Of Promise Starboard estimated Macy’s real estate holdings at $21 billion this summer, which is nearly double… Read More

All major U.S. indices closed essentially unchanged last week except for the small-cap Russell 2000. While this index has been a weak spot in 2015, it gained 2.3% last week and is now challenging major overhead resistance.  I’ll take a more in-depth look at this index and its potential implications for the broader market later in this report. But the highlight heading into this week was investor indecision — the kind that leads into new intermediate-term price trends. #-ad_banner-# The benchmark S&P 500 began the week at precisely the same level it closed at on Oct. 28 —… Read More

All major U.S. indices closed essentially unchanged last week except for the small-cap Russell 2000. While this index has been a weak spot in 2015, it gained 2.3% last week and is now challenging major overhead resistance.  I’ll take a more in-depth look at this index and its potential implications for the broader market later in this report. But the highlight heading into this week was investor indecision — the kind that leads into new intermediate-term price trends. #-ad_banner-# The benchmark S&P 500 began the week at precisely the same level it closed at on Oct. 28 — 2,090. I continue to view this general area as a major decision point. The market must either break major overhead resistance levels that are currently being tested — and soon — or run the risk of another pullback that could retest the September/October lows. The best-performing sectors of the lackluster week were consumer staples, up 1.8%, and real estate, up 1.5%, the latter of which has benefited from the recent slump in long-term U.S. interest rates. Bringing up the rear was defensive utilities, which lost 1.5%. Small Caps At Major Crossroads Weakness in market-leading small caps has kept a… Read More

My years in the military have allowed me to see the world in a totally different way. While deployed overseas, I tracked IED locations, went on convoy missions and gathered intelligence from local villages. I learned the importance of analyzing data to forecast what was likely to happen in the future, and I used this data to determine the level of risk our soldiers were dealing with. The typical mission was scheduled to take seven days but almost always ended up taking longer due to roadside bombs and the occasional unruly hostile who decided to shoot at us. These experiences… Read More

My years in the military have allowed me to see the world in a totally different way. While deployed overseas, I tracked IED locations, went on convoy missions and gathered intelligence from local villages. I learned the importance of analyzing data to forecast what was likely to happen in the future, and I used this data to determine the level of risk our soldiers were dealing with. The typical mission was scheduled to take seven days but almost always ended up taking longer due to roadside bombs and the occasional unruly hostile who decided to shoot at us. These experiences opened my eyes to the bigger picture — not just in the military, but in everyday life. My experience assessing risk in the military also allows me to think outside the box. And when it comes to the financial markets, it’s paid off in a big way. Today, there is an onslaught of different investing techniques and strategies. When I was first introduced to them, I found myself, like most, overwhelmed. That’s when my training came in handy. I immediately looked at the market from a different angle. I was soon drawn to a little-known but massive market… one that… Read More

If there’s one topic that has defined investing this year, it has been investor fear of rising interest rates. After more than six years of historically low rates, it was all but inevitable that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would finally begin to increase rates starting this year. That fear has lead investors to sell their stocks in rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples. Traditional thinking says that higher interest rates could put the dividends for those investor staples at risk. As for the rest of the market, many worry that higher borrowing costs would weigh on… Read More

If there’s one topic that has defined investing this year, it has been investor fear of rising interest rates. After more than six years of historically low rates, it was all but inevitable that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would finally begin to increase rates starting this year. That fear has lead investors to sell their stocks in rate-sensitive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples. Traditional thinking says that higher interest rates could put the dividends for those investor staples at risk. As for the rest of the market, many worry that higher borrowing costs would weigh on the economy and send the entire market reeling. As a result, the S&P 500 went nowhere for most of the year. Then in mid-August, with bets rising on a September rate hike, the market tumbled 11% in just over a week. While the market has recovered from that fall, the odds are back on for a rate hike after the December FOMC meeting…   But if you’re thinking it’s time again to sell your utilities or consumer staples, you’re wrong. Rising Rates Could Be Great For These Sectors While the theory that rate-sensitive sectors should underperform when rates rise… Read More