If you’ve been paying attention to the weather lately, you’ve probably heard something about the El Nino effect. El Nino is the name given to the global weather pattern occurring generally once ever five years where warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific causes a shift in wind patterns and atmospheric pressure.  #-ad_banner-#The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts the odds at 95% that the El Nino weather phenomenon will continue through the rest of 2015 and into the spring of next year. In fact, some meteorologists are starting to see close similarities to the weather pattern that hit back… Read More

If you’ve been paying attention to the weather lately, you’ve probably heard something about the El Nino effect. El Nino is the name given to the global weather pattern occurring generally once ever five years where warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific causes a shift in wind patterns and atmospheric pressure.  #-ad_banner-#The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) puts the odds at 95% that the El Nino weather phenomenon will continue through the rest of 2015 and into the spring of next year. In fact, some meteorologists are starting to see close similarities to the weather pattern that hit back in 1997, dubbed “Super El Nino”. While making investment decision based on weather phenomenon is not a guaranteed trade, history shows some clear patterns of which you can take advantage this year. Within the data, winners and losers start to emerge from Mother Nature’s wrath. How El Nino Affects The Weather — And Stock Prices The latest data from the NOAA shows strong similarities between this year’s El Nino and the super patterns experienced globally in 1982 and 1987. Average surface sea temperatures were 1.5 degrees Celsius above normal from July to September, the third highest average on record… Read More

The market is about to get crazy. Over the next month, stocks both large and small are going to be volatile. They’ll bounce around 10%, 20%, even 35% or more in a single day. This “volatility season” was built into the financial system over 80 years ago by the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and there’s nothing you can do about it. It’s inevitable. It’s more commonly known as earnings season. Earnings are the true drivers of stocks, and I have good reason to believe a lot of companies are going to report lackluster results. For the next few… Read More

The market is about to get crazy. Over the next month, stocks both large and small are going to be volatile. They’ll bounce around 10%, 20%, even 35% or more in a single day. This “volatility season” was built into the financial system over 80 years ago by the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and there’s nothing you can do about it. It’s inevitable. It’s more commonly known as earnings season. Earnings are the true drivers of stocks, and I have good reason to believe a lot of companies are going to report lackluster results. For the next few weeks, we’re likely to see one-day stock moves of 5% to 15%-plus more frequently. This can result in quick losses or gains — depending on how you’re positioned. If you could accurately predict whether a company will beat or miss earnings estimates before its quarterly report, then you could profit from the post-report move. Over the years, I’ve developed a proprietary earnings algorithm that helps me do just that. With it, I have been able to predict — with good odds — whether a company’s earnings will beat or miss the consensus. For instance, in mid-October, my earnings algorithm predicted… Read More

With the elections around the corner, it only makes sense to bring up the enormous elephant in the room: politicians are rich… and intend to stay that way. Ben Carson left his campaign last month to spend time on a book tour. Trump came out with his own book recently. Of course, none of that’s new. Newt Gingrich did the same last election cycle.  And we know that the Clintons both made the vast majority of their wealth through book sales and speeches. The Obamas too. What might not be so apparent — but surely not shocking all the same… Read More

With the elections around the corner, it only makes sense to bring up the enormous elephant in the room: politicians are rich… and intend to stay that way. Ben Carson left his campaign last month to spend time on a book tour. Trump came out with his own book recently. Of course, none of that’s new. Newt Gingrich did the same last election cycle.  And we know that the Clintons both made the vast majority of their wealth through book sales and speeches. The Obamas too. What might not be so apparent — but surely not shocking all the same — is that the vast majority of politicians are also successful investors. According to the Office of Public Records of the Secretary of the Senate, 50% of federally-elected politicians are millionaires. Much of that was due to “successful investments and portfolio management.” I say that so tongue-in-cheek because of this other simple fact from the same watchdog group: members of the House of Representatives outperform regular investors by 6.8 percentage points. Think about what that means. In years when you make 10%, they make 16.8%. When you lose 5%, they still make 1.8%. You can’t tell me that they are… Read More

If you blinked, you would have missed it. All of a sudden, the market is behaving like the market we remembered from a few years ago. Rather than being subjected to knee-jerk reactions in stock prices based on China’s economy, the Federal Reserve or the latest “crisis” in Europe, investors finally have a free hand to make (or lose) money from one thing and one thing only. Earnings. #-ad_banner-#We’re right in the middle of earnings season, and my colleague Jared Levy has been telling his Profit Amplifier readers to ignore the “noise” in the market and… Read More

If you blinked, you would have missed it. All of a sudden, the market is behaving like the market we remembered from a few years ago. Rather than being subjected to knee-jerk reactions in stock prices based on China’s economy, the Federal Reserve or the latest “crisis” in Europe, investors finally have a free hand to make (or lose) money from one thing and one thing only. Earnings. #-ad_banner-#We’re right in the middle of earnings season, and my colleague Jared Levy has been telling his Profit Amplifier readers to ignore the “noise” in the market and instead focus on individual stocks. That’s because it is the best shot investors have to make a killing during this earnings season. We’ve already seen a number of well-known companies report earnings, most notably Apple, which reported last week on Tuesday.  I’ve said before that Apple is one of the few remaining “no brainer” trades in the market. The company is firing on all cylinders, has a boatload of cash and the stock is cheap (trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 11, compared to the S&P 500’s 17.6).  Just a few days before Apple reported, Jared weighed in, and… Read More

Even though crude oil is languishing below $50 a barrel, the energy sector has been showing signs of life in the past month. Since rebounding off its late-September low, the sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 7 percentage points. Some oil services stocks have already broken out to the upside, but I spotted one that is just starting to make its move. While the long-term trend is still officially to the downside, every long-term reversal starts with a short-term one.  And that’s what we’re seeing now with oil and gas exploration and production company Murphy… Read More

Even though crude oil is languishing below $50 a barrel, the energy sector has been showing signs of life in the past month. Since rebounding off its late-September low, the sector has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 7 percentage points. Some oil services stocks have already broken out to the upside, but I spotted one that is just starting to make its move. While the long-term trend is still officially to the downside, every long-term reversal starts with a short-term one.  And that’s what we’re seeing now with oil and gas exploration and production company Murphy Oil (NYSE: MUR). The easiest pattern to spot on the chart is an upside down or inverted head-and-shoulders. It is defined by a central trough (head) surrounded by roughly equal but shallower troughs (shoulders). A line connects the highs between these troughs to define the resistance line known as the neckline.  Because this is a reversal pattern, we expect to see many indicators setting higher lows as the pattern progresses. Indeed, we’re seeing that in momentum readings for Murphy Oil, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI). #-ad_banner-# But that alone is not enough to confirm a bottom. So… Read More

Successful investing isn’t easy. If it were, everyone would do it. But some tried and true principles give disciplined, patient investors an edge. One such principle is identifying immutable long-term trends and finding companies likely to benefit. #-ad_banner-#The most powerful, enduring long-term trend in American life right now is the aging population. No government policy, new technology or unforeseen circumstance will change the fact that the Baby Boom population is moving into its senior years, working its way through America’s demographic body like a meal through a python. That bulge in population means some parts of our economy will grow… Read More

Successful investing isn’t easy. If it were, everyone would do it. But some tried and true principles give disciplined, patient investors an edge. One such principle is identifying immutable long-term trends and finding companies likely to benefit. #-ad_banner-#The most powerful, enduring long-term trend in American life right now is the aging population. No government policy, new technology or unforeseen circumstance will change the fact that the Baby Boom population is moving into its senior years, working its way through America’s demographic body like a meal through a python. That bulge in population means some parts of our economy will grow at a faster rate than others for many years to come. About 10,000 Americans turn 65 every day. By 2030, more than 20% of the population will be over 65 years old and more than a third will be over 50. By 2050, the population aged 65 or older will be an estimated 84 million, vs. 43.1 million in 2012; the population of Americans 85 or older will be an estimated 18 million, vs. 5.9 million in 2012. That means a rapidly expanding market for companies that sell products or services to older Americans. Its commonplace to read… Read More

Benjamin Franklin was a Founding Father, statesman and signer of the Declaration of Independence.  He was also a brilliant inventor — creating bifocals, the lightning rod and the odometer. But his greatest invention has been shrouded in mystery for more than 250 years… It involves controlling one of the most important resources known to man: energy. #-ad_banner-#In 1749, through a revolutionary experiment, Franklin created a device that could capture and harness energy. Then, 150 years later, Thomas Edison picked up where Franklin left off. Since then, many others have carried forward this work.  But a few months ago, a band… Read More

Benjamin Franklin was a Founding Father, statesman and signer of the Declaration of Independence.  He was also a brilliant inventor — creating bifocals, the lightning rod and the odometer. But his greatest invention has been shrouded in mystery for more than 250 years… It involves controlling one of the most important resources known to man: energy. #-ad_banner-#In 1749, through a revolutionary experiment, Franklin created a device that could capture and harness energy. Then, 150 years later, Thomas Edison picked up where Franklin left off. Since then, many others have carried forward this work.  But a few months ago, a band of scientists — backed by an eccentric billionaire — took Franklin’s dream to new heights.  They finally broke through — and now it has the potential to make early investors a fortune.  From Franklin, Tesla, Edison — And Now Musk We’ve all heard the first part of the folk tale… Ben Franklin was convinced that lightning bolts contain energy, and he wanted to prove it. So during a thunderstorm, he flew a kite with a metal key attached, hoping the kite would get hit. And it worked. The kite was struck by lightning, and the key produced a shock. Read More

Bill Ackman spent four hours last week defending his position in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX) after accusations of fraud more than halved the stock’s price in less than three months.  The activist investor, whose Pershing Square Capital owns a roughly 6% stake in Valeant, made a strong argument in favor of the Canadian pharmaceuticals giant. Evidently, investors weren’t quite convinced, though, as shares sold off another 16% on the day of the presentation.  But while the market can be fickle, especially when it comes to legal uncertainty in the pharmaceutical industry, there is a lot… Read More

Bill Ackman spent four hours last week defending his position in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: VRX) after accusations of fraud more than halved the stock’s price in less than three months.  The activist investor, whose Pershing Square Capital owns a roughly 6% stake in Valeant, made a strong argument in favor of the Canadian pharmaceuticals giant. Evidently, investors weren’t quite convinced, though, as shares sold off another 16% on the day of the presentation.  But while the market can be fickle, especially when it comes to legal uncertainty in the pharmaceutical industry, there is a lot of value in VRX. In fact, traders have a chance to book a quick double-digit return while hedging their risk. Valeant Hit With A Media Firestorm Under the leadership of CEO Michael Pearson and his aggressive acquisition strategy, shares of Valeant surged nearly 25-fold in seven years. By acquiring what he considered to be mispriced drugs and folding them into Valeant’s distribution channel, he kept research and development (R&D) expenses low compared to other drug manufacturers.  The trouble for Valeant began in August. First, presidential hopeful Sen. Bernie Sanders publicly requested the company answer for its practice of raising prices on… Read More