Analyst Articles

Although diet crazes come and go, one trend has become clear:  Americans are drinking less soda. Per-capita soda consumption has been in decline since 1998, according to the industry publication Beverage Digest. That hasn’t stopped the big three beverage companies, The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO), PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) and Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (NYSE: DPS) from being fantastic investments. All have more than doubled over the past five years, in addition to sporting roughly 3% yields. Although the declining soda trend doesn’t look to be reversing anytime soon, PepsiCo, with its great international and product diversification, is poised… Read More

Although diet crazes come and go, one trend has become clear:  Americans are drinking less soda. Per-capita soda consumption has been in decline since 1998, according to the industry publication Beverage Digest. That hasn’t stopped the big three beverage companies, The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO), PepsiCo, Inc. (NYSE: PEP) and Dr. Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (NYSE: DPS) from being fantastic investments. All have more than doubled over the past five years, in addition to sporting roughly 3% yields. Although the declining soda trend doesn’t look to be reversing anytime soon, PepsiCo, with its great international and product diversification, is poised to be the outperformer. Why Not Dr. Pepper? Dr. Pepper has run away from Pepsi and Coca-Cola in the past six months, climbing 25% while shares of Coca-Cola and PepsiCo have fallen or remained flat. However, that’s almost certainly a function of the strengthening U.S. dollar. Dr. Pepper generates more than 90% of its revenue from North America and is nearly immune to the currency headwinds faced by PepsiCo and Coca-Cola. While Dr. Pepper has benefitted from that focus on North America in the past six months, its attractiveness to investors could wane if the dollar were to weaken. Read More

It’s a simple way to look at trading. But to me, a successful trade is one that makes money. For most investors, this means you see a stock you like, do some research and then decide to pull the trigger. At this point, of course, the hope is that the stock moves up and you book a reasonable return on your investment. #-ad_banner-#But if the stock moves lower or sideways, you’ll break even at best. What if I told you that there is a strategy that makes it possible to profit from owning stocks that aren’t moving at all? This… Read More

It’s a simple way to look at trading. But to me, a successful trade is one that makes money. For most investors, this means you see a stock you like, do some research and then decide to pull the trigger. At this point, of course, the hope is that the stock moves up and you book a reasonable return on your investment. #-ad_banner-#But if the stock moves lower or sideways, you’ll break even at best. What if I told you that there is a strategy that makes it possible to profit from owning stocks that aren’t moving at all? This isn’t just theory. In my premium newsletter we’ve been able to earn market-beating returns time and again using what we call the Maximum Income strategy. For example, MasterCard (NYSE: MA) was one of the first positions we opened back in February 2014. The trade closed in July, about five months later. Over that period, the S&P 500 gained about 6%, while MasterCard only gained 1.3%. But by using my Maximum Income strategy, my subscribers pocketed a 10% gain. How is this possible? While traditional stock investors sit back and hope… Read More

The search for yield in a world where the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note offers less than 2% is a tough task. Fortunately, there are stocks that still offer attractive income and the potential for trading gains.  By nature, stocks are risker than bonds, especially default-risk-free Treasuries, but with that risk comes the potential for greater reward. #-ad_banner-#Not all stocks offering high dividend yields are good investments. Yields rise as share prices fall. If a company is in trouble, it is unlikely it will be able to sustain its dividend payout. One way to predict whether… Read More

The search for yield in a world where the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note offers less than 2% is a tough task. Fortunately, there are stocks that still offer attractive income and the potential for trading gains.  By nature, stocks are risker than bonds, especially default-risk-free Treasuries, but with that risk comes the potential for greater reward. #-ad_banner-#Not all stocks offering high dividend yields are good investments. Yields rise as share prices fall. If a company is in trouble, it is unlikely it will be able to sustain its dividend payout. One way to predict whether a stock’s high yield is a potential sign that the dividend may be cut is to look at the chart. A falling price trend is a red flag, as the market often seems to know what lies ahead before analysts figure it out. But if a stock with a big yield has a positive chart, it could wind up rewarding investors with both high income and capital gains. One of my favorite dividend stocks right now that is showing a turnaround on its chart is Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB).  Shares of the personal products maker have had… Read More

Based on this year’s 17% spike in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, it seems investors have found a home in European stocks. They’re especially enthused about the German market, which is currently sitting on more than a 23% gain and recently cracked 12,000 for the first time. As Europe’s strongest economy, and the world’s fourth largest, Germany may seem like a no-brainer investment. Especially now, as the European Central Bank (ECB) embarks on a historic bond-buying program aimed at sparking economic activity across the region. However, I think many investors are following the herd into European (and German)… Read More

Based on this year’s 17% spike in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, it seems investors have found a home in European stocks. They’re especially enthused about the German market, which is currently sitting on more than a 23% gain and recently cracked 12,000 for the first time. As Europe’s strongest economy, and the world’s fourth largest, Germany may seem like a no-brainer investment. Especially now, as the European Central Bank (ECB) embarks on a historic bond-buying program aimed at sparking economic activity across the region. However, I think many investors are following the herd into European (and German) stocks on the assumption that these equities have nowhere to go but up. While investing in Europe still makes great sense for the long haul, investors may become disappointed with the results of ECB stimulus. Best House In A Tough Neighborhood So what does Germany have going for it? Jobs and wage growth, for starters. After peaking at about 8% during the last recession, German unemployment is down to 4.7% — low by any standard and a far cry from the region-wide average of 11.2%. Youth unemployment, which remains at alarming levels in southern Europe, is a more modest 7.1%… Read More

When it comes to the energy sector, history has a way of repeating itself.  Energy drillers purse debt-fueled growth when times are good and face a debt hangover when energy prices head south. It’s happening again. The energy sector may face roughly $11.6 billion in bond defaults, according to a recent Bloomberg News article. Understandably, that has made many equity investors leery of this slumping sector. #-ad_banner-#But has the commensurate plunge across the oil exploration and production (E&P) sector been overdone? And if so, might it  present a buying opportunity, both for investors and larger players?… Read More

When it comes to the energy sector, history has a way of repeating itself.  Energy drillers purse debt-fueled growth when times are good and face a debt hangover when energy prices head south. It’s happening again. The energy sector may face roughly $11.6 billion in bond defaults, according to a recent Bloomberg News article. Understandably, that has made many equity investors leery of this slumping sector. #-ad_banner-#But has the commensurate plunge across the oil exploration and production (E&P) sector been overdone? And if so, might it  present a buying opportunity, both for investors and larger players? The shale boom led to inflated asset values. Now, the reverse is true. The value of shale producer’s reserves have fallen more than 25% since 2013, from $18.52 per barrel to$13.60 per barrel at the end of 2014. That figure has likely fallen further in 2015. I recently wrote about how the long-term demand for oil should help rebuild pricing. As a result, companies with near-term liquidity needs, but appealing longer-term fundamentals, could now be cheap enough to attract larger buyers. Consolidation Has Commenced We may already be witnessing asset-rich firms attracting the interest of cash-rich buyers. Read More

Last week, I shared some research with you that I submitted to the Market Technicians Association (MTA). My paper, “Fixing the VIX: An Indicator to Beat Fear,” earned me the 2015 Charles H. Dow Award, and I’m headed to New York City this week to accept that great honor. In my paper, I presented research on a metric you may have heard me mention before, the Income Trader Volatility (ITV) indicator. Between Sept. 20, 2013 and Sept. 26, 2014, the period covered in the research I submitted to the MTA, I recommended 183 trades based on… Read More

Last week, I shared some research with you that I submitted to the Market Technicians Association (MTA). My paper, “Fixing the VIX: An Indicator to Beat Fear,” earned me the 2015 Charles H. Dow Award, and I’m headed to New York City this week to accept that great honor. In my paper, I presented research on a metric you may have heard me mention before, the Income Trader Volatility (ITV) indicator. Between Sept. 20, 2013 and Sept. 26, 2014, the period covered in the research I submitted to the MTA, I recommended 183 trades based on ITV and 93% of those trades were winners. #-ad_banner-#This week, I want to show you exactly how I use this indicator to recommend trades to my subscribers. But before I do, let me do a quick recap. Most traders are familiar with the Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX), which is helpful in finding turning points in the S&P 500 index. In general, traders look for high VIX levels as a sign of a market bottom and low levels as a sign of a potential top. But VIX is not useful in finding turning points in specific stocks. ITV is similar… Read More

#-ad_banner-#There are 253 million cars and trucks driving along U.S. roads. And the average age of those automobiles is roughly 11.4 years old, according to a recent study by IHS Automotive, a leading auto industry research firm.  That bodes well for companies offering replacement parts and services on the population’s aging vehicles. And growth investors buying shares of these companies have reaped serious rewards in the past.  But if you’re an income investor, then you may have noticed that the biggest players in the industry don’t exactly offer much of what you’re looking for.  Leading firms Advance Auto Parts, Inc. Read More

#-ad_banner-#There are 253 million cars and trucks driving along U.S. roads. And the average age of those automobiles is roughly 11.4 years old, according to a recent study by IHS Automotive, a leading auto industry research firm.  That bodes well for companies offering replacement parts and services on the population’s aging vehicles. And growth investors buying shares of these companies have reaped serious rewards in the past.  But if you’re an income investor, then you may have noticed that the biggest players in the industry don’t exactly offer much of what you’re looking for.  Leading firms Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE: AAP) and AutoZone, Inc. (NYSE: AZO) offer close to nothing in the way of dividend yields — 0.2% and 0.0%, respectively.  Genuine Parts Co. (NYSE: GPC), however, which sells its parts and accessory items through more than 6,000 NAPA Auto Parts stores nationwide, pays a healthy 2.6% dividend yield.  Now I know what you’re thinking: a 2.6% yield is nothing to write home about. But as history as shown, shareholders of this company can expect that dividend to keep growing.  That’s because GPC is a member of a group of top dividend payers known as the Dividend Aristocrats. These… Read More

Every few months, I like to review the most intriguing open market purchases made by CEOs, CFOs and other key insiders. These folks typically have a clear read on business trends — even better than the rest of us — and their cash commitment should be a catalyst for further research.  These days, I am steering clear of insider buying at energy producers. These insiders have been premature in their hopes for a rebound, and it’s simply too uncertain to know when this sector will get going again. I am, however, intrigued by other energy-related industries, such as the… Read More

Every few months, I like to review the most intriguing open market purchases made by CEOs, CFOs and other key insiders. These folks typically have a clear read on business trends — even better than the rest of us — and their cash commitment should be a catalyst for further research.  These days, I am steering clear of insider buying at energy producers. These insiders have been premature in their hopes for a rebound, and it’s simply too uncertain to know when this sector will get going again. I am, however, intrigued by other energy-related industries, such as the master limited partnerships (MLPs), many of which are more sensitive to volumes than pricing.  Here are three companies with heavy insider buying that recently caught my attention. #-ad_banner-#Kinder Morgan, Inc. (NYSE: KMI) Richard Kinder is seen by many as one of the pioneers of the energy MLP business models. His firm has either built or acquired many pipeline assets over the years, which has enabled Kinder Morgan to be among the steadiest producers of growing dividends. So when Richard Kinder paid $3.95 million to acquire 100,000 shares in mid-March, it was surely noteworthy. According to… Read More