Tim Begany is an experienced investor and financial journalist who has written about many financial topics including stocks, bonds, mutual funds, international/emerging markets, retirement and insurance. He worked at several financial planning and investment advisory firms, where he participated in the development and management of stock, bond, and mutual fund portfolios and helped clients with comprehensive financial planning. His education includes a bachelor's degree in business administration and the Certified Financial Planner curriculum. He holds a Series 65 investment consultant license.

Analyst Articles

  Growth and income investors seeking stocks that perform well in all economic conditions are often quickly drawn to Public Storage (NYSE: PSA), a real estate investment trust that’s basically the king of self-storage facilities.   #-ad_banner-#Public Storage’s domain is expansive, comprising more than 2,000 properties in 38 states and Europe. Its $2.1 billion in annual revenue and $35-billion market value are tops among self-storage REITs. Eight dividend hikes in the past 10 years despite a recession also sets Public Storage apart, as does its whopping $5.60 a share payout and 165% stock price gain in the past five years. Read More

  Growth and income investors seeking stocks that perform well in all economic conditions are often quickly drawn to Public Storage (NYSE: PSA), a real estate investment trust that’s basically the king of self-storage facilities.   #-ad_banner-#Public Storage’s domain is expansive, comprising more than 2,000 properties in 38 states and Europe. Its $2.1 billion in annual revenue and $35-billion market value are tops among self-storage REITs. Eight dividend hikes in the past 10 years despite a recession also sets Public Storage apart, as does its whopping $5.60 a share payout and 165% stock price gain in the past five years.   Investors shouldn’t be too quick to settle solely on Public Storage, though. There are several other excellent self-storage REITs worth considering, both for diversification and as good or better yields.   My favorite is one most investors probably wouldn’t recognize right off the bat: Sovran Self Storage, Inc. (NYSE: SSS).   But those living in Sovran’s core markets of Florida, Texas and the Mid-Atlantic states may know the company better by its brand, Uncle Bob’s Self-Storage. Typically, an Uncle Bob’s is a large, modern-looking, multi-story facility with 24-hour access, sophisticated security systems and climate control, in keeping with current… Read More

  There are a pair of solid reasons why I developed my skills as a stock analyst: I don’t have much faith in other analysts and money managers, and nobody is going to care as much about managing my money as I am.   #-ad_banner-#But there are a few analysts and money managers that I do respect. Adam Parker, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley is one of them, as well as Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs.   Few money managers, even among those that I follow, are able to say they have consistently beaten the market. In… Read More

  There are a pair of solid reasons why I developed my skills as a stock analyst: I don’t have much faith in other analysts and money managers, and nobody is going to care as much about managing my money as I am.   #-ad_banner-#But there are a few analysts and money managers that I do respect. Adam Parker, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley is one of them, as well as Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs.   Few money managers, even among those that I follow, are able to say they have consistently beaten the market. In fact, I can only think of one and he just made a recommendation that I cannot ignore.   A Market Oracle Makes A Bold Call To my knowledge, you won’t find a money manager or analyst that has surpassed the stock-picking savvy of Bill Miller, chairman and chief investment officer of Legg Mason Capital Management. Miller runs his firm’s Legg Mason Value Trust, which beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years, making him one of the most widely-respected managers on Wall Street.   Miller’s historic run came to an end in… Read More

All major U.S. indices closed up for the second consecutive week, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which gained 3.7%. This puts them all back into positive territory for 2015.  #-ad_banner-#Since late last year, I have been saying that leadership by technology was necessary to propel the broader market to new highs. It looks like we are finally starting to see that. Tech was the strongest sector of the S&P 500 last week, gaining 3.8%.  Energy also made an impressive showing, advancing 2.8%. It has actually outperformed the S&P 500 by 5 basis points since the Jan. 19 Market Outlook,… Read More

All major U.S. indices closed up for the second consecutive week, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, which gained 3.7%. This puts them all back into positive territory for 2015.  #-ad_banner-#Since late last year, I have been saying that leadership by technology was necessary to propel the broader market to new highs. It looks like we are finally starting to see that. Tech was the strongest sector of the S&P 500 last week, gaining 3.8%.  Energy also made an impressive showing, advancing 2.8%. It has actually outperformed the S&P 500 by 5 basis points since the Jan. 19 Market Outlook, when my ETF-based metric showed energy had the biggest one-week inflow of investor assets. At the time, I said this suggested an “emerging buying opportunity in this unloved and washed-out sector.” Moreover, the latest data shows that, through the end of last week, the biggest increase in sector bet-related investor assets over the past one-month and three-month periods was into energy, which should support further strength in the sector. Tech Leadership is a Good Sign for the Bulls In the Jan. 12 Market Outlook, I pointed out that the sideways price activity in the Nasdaq 100… Read More

I probably don’t have to tell you this, but the odds are stacked against you when it comes to “beating the market.” By nearly 6 to 1 in fact… Investment analysts, advisors and fund managers — the so-called experts — spend their entire working lives and billions of dollars on research vowing to “beat the market” in any given year — yet the vast majority of them fail… Just look at mutual fund industry’s record. In the past three years, just 14% of actively-managed mutual fund managers matched or exceeded the… Read More

I probably don’t have to tell you this, but the odds are stacked against you when it comes to “beating the market.” By nearly 6 to 1 in fact… Investment analysts, advisors and fund managers — the so-called experts — spend their entire working lives and billions of dollars on research vowing to “beat the market” in any given year — yet the vast majority of them fail… Just look at mutual fund industry’s record. In the past three years, just 14% of actively-managed mutual fund managers matched or exceeded the market’s performance according to Standard & Poor’s. So how are the small minority beating the market? After years of research, we’ve found that more often than not, investors who keep these two rules in mind when choosing stocks have been proven to collect higher dividend yields and consistently beat the S&P 500… #-ad_banner-#Dividend payers beat non-dividend payers. It probably comes as no surprise that, over time, investing in companies that return money to shareholders in the form of dividend payments make a much better investment than putting money in stocks… Read More

  Steel stocks have fallen deeply out of favor with the group losing about 25% of its value over the past year, according to Morningstar. The industry’s biggest players, U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) and ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) have fallen 60% or more from their cyclical peaks.   For bargain hunters, a decline of this magnitude might be seen as an opportunity to hunt for deep values. You can’t blame investors for such a reaction.   We saw a similar pullback in energy stocks in recent months, yet many key energy stocks and ETFs have now made rapid rebounds from… Read More

  Steel stocks have fallen deeply out of favor with the group losing about 25% of its value over the past year, according to Morningstar. The industry’s biggest players, U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) and ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) have fallen 60% or more from their cyclical peaks.   For bargain hunters, a decline of this magnitude might be seen as an opportunity to hunt for deep values. You can’t blame investors for such a reaction.   We saw a similar pullback in energy stocks in recent months, yet many key energy stocks and ETFs have now made rapid rebounds from their recent lows. For example, the Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE), an ETF that provides broad exposure to energy stocks, has spiked almost 9% already after apparently hitting bottom a month ago.   However, I’m not so keen on a similar rebound in steel stocks or ETFs.   Steel and oil are subject to distinct economic variables. Many experts believe that energy prices will regain much of their lost value by next year, albeit with a high degree of near-term volatility. #-ad_banner-#However, there are a number of reasons why the steel industry could be a perilous value… Read More

Even if you never decide to pursue short selling, you still need to track the key actions of short sellers. These contrarian investors may be highlighting potential troubles for a stock that you own in a long-focused portfolio. And they also often provide key clues about the economy’s underlying changes. #-ad_banner-#As I recently noted, the year ahead is likely to be quite different from the recent past, impacting companies and industries in myriad ways. And you can add the impact of a strong U.S. dollar to the group of factors that are impacting business conditions. What do the shorts have… Read More

Even if you never decide to pursue short selling, you still need to track the key actions of short sellers. These contrarian investors may be highlighting potential troubles for a stock that you own in a long-focused portfolio. And they also often provide key clues about the economy’s underlying changes. #-ad_banner-#As I recently noted, the year ahead is likely to be quite different from the recent past, impacting companies and industries in myriad ways. And you can add the impact of a strong U.S. dollar to the group of factors that are impacting business conditions. What do the shorts have to say about these economic changes? Well, they are targeting several companies and industries that appear increasingly vulnerable to an economy-led pullback. Perhaps the most obvious example of an industry in flux, is the laser-like focus of short sellers on AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T). As of the end of January, the short interest in this telecom giant stood at a whopping 303 million shares. For a bit of context, the short interest stood at roughly 100 million in September 2013 and has been steadily rising ever since. This stock now has nearly twice the short interest of the second most-heavily… Read More

Today we want to tell you about an investing strategy that defies logic. It shouldn’t work based on everything we’ve learned about the stock market. #-ad_banner-#Yet it does. In fact, for over half a century, investors and traders have used this strategy to produce unparalleled results. And no, for those of you who may be wondering, this strategy doesn’t involve options, derivatives or any other obscure financial product. What’s more, what I’m about to show you can be used as part of any general investing strategy — regardless of whether you’re… Read More

Today we want to tell you about an investing strategy that defies logic. It shouldn’t work based on everything we’ve learned about the stock market. #-ad_banner-#Yet it does. In fact, for over half a century, investors and traders have used this strategy to produce unparalleled results. And no, for those of you who may be wondering, this strategy doesn’t involve options, derivatives or any other obscure financial product. What’s more, what I’m about to show you can be used as part of any general investing strategy — regardless of whether you’re focusing on income, growth, blue chips, small caps or even commodities. pecifically, I’m talking about relative-strength investing. Longtime readers might already be familiar with relative-strength investing. We’ve talked about it before in previous StreetAuthority Daily issues. For those who need a refresher, here’s a brief recap. Relative strength investing is simply a type of momentum investing. It involves buying the best-performing stocks (relative to the market) and holding them until their momentum changes course. To most investors, especially those considered value investors, this strategy probably sounds ridiculous. After… Read More

One of the most important lessons I learned during my days in the Army was the KISS principle: Keep it simple, stupid. #-ad_banner-#Outside of the military, one of the greatest minds of all time believed in the KISS philosophy, but Albert Einstein expressed the idea in more poetic terms: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” I bring that same mindset to investment analysis. I want every process to be as simple as possible, but not so simple that I’m leaving out anything important. While I have spent a great deal of time studying complex investment… Read More

One of the most important lessons I learned during my days in the Army was the KISS principle: Keep it simple, stupid. #-ad_banner-#Outside of the military, one of the greatest minds of all time believed in the KISS philosophy, but Albert Einstein expressed the idea in more poetic terms: “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” I bring that same mindset to investment analysis. I want every process to be as simple as possible, but not so simple that I’m leaving out anything important. While I have spent a great deal of time studying complex investment techniques, what I discovered is that the KISS principle applies in investment analysis as well as it did in the military. For example, although I look at complex valuation models, the simple PEG ratio consistently identifies undervalued stocks. The PEG ratio compares the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to the growth rate of earnings per share (EPS). A stock is considered fairly valued when the PEG ratio is equal to 1, which means the P/E ratio equals the EPS growth rate. I have found the PEG ratio to be a much more useful tool than other fundamental valuation methods for finding a… Read More

We’re approaching the 20th anniversary of an historic agreement, and its impact is roiling global markets today, with potentially profound effects by 2017. That landmark move: The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision in 1995 to establish a single, continent-wide currency. When the euro finally began circulating (replacing drachmas, guilders, marks, francs, pesetas and many other currencies) in 1999, it was worth exactly one U.S. dollar. The ECB’s goal: to eventually see the euro become a leading global currency that would attract more than its share of capital flows. #-ad_banner-#That plan may have worked too well: by the… Read More

We’re approaching the 20th anniversary of an historic agreement, and its impact is roiling global markets today, with potentially profound effects by 2017. That landmark move: The European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision in 1995 to establish a single, continent-wide currency. When the euro finally began circulating (replacing drachmas, guilders, marks, francs, pesetas and many other currencies) in 1999, it was worth exactly one U.S. dollar. The ECB’s goal: to eventually see the euro become a leading global currency that would attract more than its share of capital flows. #-ad_banner-#That plan may have worked too well: by the spring of 2008, the euro was worth more than $1.50, which was arguably too rich an exchange rate for many weaker European economies, some of which became among the most expensive places in the world to do business. The Great Recession of 2008 put an end to all that. The euro has been in freefall ever since, and a pair of economic research teams predict that the euro will keep on sliding until it gets all the way back to parity. In August 2014, when the euro was already breaking down to the 1.30 level, economists… Read More

Volatility is heating up. Triple-digit moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are now an almost everyday occurrence. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), popularly known as the stock market’s fear gauge, has been marching higher. The index, which uses options pricing to measure expected swings in the S&P 500, implies that investors expect more intense and frequent stock price swings in 2015.  The fear gauge hovered around 14 much of last year, its lowest average since 2006. It jumped to around 20 in the first two weeks of 2015, hitting a one-month high above 22 on January… Read More

Volatility is heating up. Triple-digit moves in the Dow Jones Industrial Average are now an almost everyday occurrence. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), popularly known as the stock market’s fear gauge, has been marching higher. The index, which uses options pricing to measure expected swings in the S&P 500, implies that investors expect more intense and frequent stock price swings in 2015.  The fear gauge hovered around 14 much of last year, its lowest average since 2006. It jumped to around 20 in the first two weeks of 2015, hitting a one-month high above 22 on January 15.  The Market Has Shown More Volatility This Year   Intraday swings — the difference between the highest and lowest levels during the trading day — are also greater. The S&P 500 saw swings of an average 29 points per day in January, or 1.4%, according to financial data firm FactSet. That puts 2015 on track for the widest swings in four years, since the index averaged swings 1.6% intraday in 2011. By comparison, the benchmark index in both 2013 and 2014 saw average intraday swings of about 0.9%. … Read More