The S&P 500 has now closed higher seven weeks in a row. We need to consider the possibility that we are at the start of another bull market.#-ad_banner-#​ Stocks Are Bullish, but Not Bubbly After gaining 0.42% last week, SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is now up seven weeks in a row. While that gain may seem small, it is actually more than three times larger than the typical one-week gain in SPY. Since January 2001, the ETF has delivered an average one-week gain of 0.12%. Seven consecutive weeks of… Read More

The S&P 500 has now closed higher seven weeks in a row. We need to consider the possibility that we are at the start of another bull market.#-ad_banner-#​ Stocks Are Bullish, but Not Bubbly After gaining 0.42% last week, SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) is now up seven weeks in a row. While that gain may seem small, it is actually more than three times larger than the typical one-week gain in SPY. Since January 2001, the ETF has delivered an average one-week gain of 0.12%. Seven consecutive weeks of gains is an unusual price move for the broad stock market averages. It indicates that there is a great deal of demand for stocks and traders are buying. This is obviously an oversimplification, but in general terms, demand exceeding supply is the underlying cause of a price rise in any market. When stocks bottomed in March 2009, SPY moved up six weeks in a row. That is typical of the price action at market bottoms. We saw similar signs of strength in 2002, and in the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the beginning of the historic bull market in 1982. Read More

What can a 90 year-old woman from Nebraska teach us about finding profit opportunities in today’s downtrodden mining sector? Let me tell you a story. In 1983, Mrs. Rose Blumkin — nonagenarian proprietor of Nebraska Furniture Mart — was approached by a local investment fund manager who was interested in putting money into her family’s business. After talking with “Mrs. B” and observing her Herculean managerial style about the store, the buyer handed her a check for $55 million. No audit of the books, check of inventory, or verification of property titles. He saw all the qualities he liked in… Read More

What can a 90 year-old woman from Nebraska teach us about finding profit opportunities in today’s downtrodden mining sector? Let me tell you a story. In 1983, Mrs. Rose Blumkin — nonagenarian proprietor of Nebraska Furniture Mart — was approached by a local investment fund manager who was interested in putting money into her family’s business. After talking with “Mrs. B” and observing her Herculean managerial style about the store, the buyer handed her a check for $55 million. No audit of the books, check of inventory, or verification of property titles. He saw all the qualities he liked in Mrs. B — and was willing to pay a lot based on a few key observations and a handshake. That man was Warren Buffett. I’ve learned a lot by studying his examples, like the one above, and applying them to natural resources investing.  This “be like Warren” message is an important one for my Junior Resource Advisor readers. That’s because investing in mining — and particularly its highest-potential-return sub-sector, exploration and development — is radically different from conventional investing. #-ad_banner-#Unlike banks or manufacturers, mineral exploration and development companies have no revenue or cash flow. I’ve sat in meetings with Wall… Read More

The number of Starbucks coffee shops that flooded the market during the mid-2000s was almost comical. In 2008, there were more than 230 Starbucks stores in New York City, with over 180 just in Manhattan. #-ad_banner-# There were literally Starbuckses right across the street from each other. As a coffee lover and Starbucks fanboy, I didn’t mind. But rapid expansion and market saturation turned out to be an unsustainable business model, which led to a large number of underperforming stores. As a result, Starbucks brought back former CEO Howard Schultz in 2008, and the company closed a number of U.S. Read More

The number of Starbucks coffee shops that flooded the market during the mid-2000s was almost comical. In 2008, there were more than 230 Starbucks stores in New York City, with over 180 just in Manhattan. #-ad_banner-# There were literally Starbuckses right across the street from each other. As a coffee lover and Starbucks fanboy, I didn’t mind. But rapid expansion and market saturation turned out to be an unsustainable business model, which led to a large number of underperforming stores. As a result, Starbucks brought back former CEO Howard Schultz in 2008, and the company closed a number of U.S. stores and ceased expansion efforts. Yet half a decade later, Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) is back in full-blown growth mode. Despite concerns that Starbucks might again be hitting a saturation point, the coffee company is still very much a growth story. Starbucks has a number of growth levers it can pull this time around beyond just rapid store expansion. These include the company’s innovation on the food side and its single-serving products, Verismo and Teavana. With the likes of McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD), Tim Horton’s and Dunkin’ Donuts all fighting for a piece of the market, the competition in the coffee market… Read More

The cost of energy production isn’t just about money. There are also environment effects.#-ad_banner-# Last year, according to one environmental group, hydraulic fracturing (commonly known as fracking) alone generated an estimated 280 billion gallons of toxic wastewater, enough to flood Washington, D.C., to a depth of 22 feet. It’s no wonder that there’s a strong push to institute cleaner practices. Green initiatives have come to dominate the corporate landscape and are attracting investment flows in record numbers. The performance in alternative energy this year is evidence of this growing trend — the iShares S&P Global Clean… Read More

The cost of energy production isn’t just about money. There are also environment effects.#-ad_banner-# Last year, according to one environmental group, hydraulic fracturing (commonly known as fracking) alone generated an estimated 280 billion gallons of toxic wastewater, enough to flood Washington, D.C., to a depth of 22 feet. It’s no wonder that there’s a strong push to institute cleaner practices. Green initiatives have come to dominate the corporate landscape and are attracting investment flows in record numbers. The performance in alternative energy this year is evidence of this growing trend — the iShares S&P Global Clean Energy Fund (Nasdaq: ICLN) is up more than 50% year to date. While most of the attention has been focused on renewable energy and clean coal, environmentally friendly sectors like pollution and treatment controls have gone relatively unnoticed. Calgon Carbon Corp. (NYSE: CCC) is a small-cap stock involved in the purification and treatment of water, air and food, as well as the poisonous emissions from coal-fired power plants. The company has been making tremendous strides in cost reduction, improving operating margins to around 20% from 13.6% just a year ago. (Calgon’s leaner operation is one reason the research staff at… Read More

The first rule of running a biotech company: Don’t run low on cash. Once investors smell a cash squeeze coming, they’ll hammer shares mercilessly. That was the painful lesson learned by the executives at Dynavax Technologies (Nasdaq: DVAX). Though DVAX was pursuing the development of a very promising new vaccine, the company was burning through more than $15 million in cash every quarter and was at risk of not making it to the FDA finish line. Shares, which traded around $5 in October 2012, skidded all the way to $1. The good news is that the company shored up its… Read More

The first rule of running a biotech company: Don’t run low on cash. Once investors smell a cash squeeze coming, they’ll hammer shares mercilessly. That was the painful lesson learned by the executives at Dynavax Technologies (Nasdaq: DVAX). Though DVAX was pursuing the development of a very promising new vaccine, the company was burning through more than $15 million in cash every quarter and was at risk of not making it to the FDA finish line. Shares, which traded around $5 in October 2012, skidded all the way to $1. The good news is that the company shored up its balance sheet late last month, and shares have finally begun to rebound. And, with a few breaks, DVAX looks poised to rise from a recent $1.45 to $3, $4 or even $5. Little Company, Big Target Market DVAX has spent years developing Heplisav, which is a vaccine for hepatitis B, a disease that currently afflicts 240 million people around the world, according to the World Health Organization.#-ad_banner-# Though there are existing vaccines on the market, DVAX believes that Heplisav offers the promise of earlier and better protection with fewer doses than current vaccines. It appeared it was going… Read More

Dividend investors crave predictability. Once they lock onto payment streams, they don’t want to hear about any interruptions. And if a company dares to withhold a quarterly dividend payout, then many investors simply head to the exits. I discussed this phenomenon recently with regard to Carl Icahn and his big stake in CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR).#-ad_banner-# As I noted earlier this month, CVR had a big hiccup with its third-quarter dividend, but it appears positioned to pay out $3 or $4 per unit in dividends next year. Shares trading around $22 don’t begin to reflect that potential income. Amazingly, a… Read More

Dividend investors crave predictability. Once they lock onto payment streams, they don’t want to hear about any interruptions. And if a company dares to withhold a quarterly dividend payout, then many investors simply head to the exits. I discussed this phenomenon recently with regard to Carl Icahn and his big stake in CVR Refining (NYSE: CVRR).#-ad_banner-# As I noted earlier this month, CVR had a big hiccup with its third-quarter dividend, but it appears positioned to pay out $3 or $4 per unit in dividends next year. Shares trading around $22 don’t begin to reflect that potential income. Amazingly, a virtually identical scenario has just played out with another oil refiner. And the setup is every bit as compelling. A series of technical problems at a key refinery led to a sharp drop in output for Alon USA Partners (NYSE: ALDW), the master limited partnership (MLP) of Alon Energy (NYSE: ALJ). In fact, the quarterly production was so weak that Alon USA Partners didn’t simply make less money — it lost money. And though investors were bracing for a smaller than usual dividend, they got nothing. Shares of ALDW, which traded up toward the $30 mark in the spring, are… Read More

My dad is in his early 70s. I remember when he was in his 50s and would joke that when he retired, he would be glad to take the spare bunk in my youngest son’s room. Luckily, it hasn’t come to that.#-ad_banner-# Like many American seniors, he and my mother, also in her early 70s, are in excellent health and extremely active. They both still work full time. They’re not baby boomers. They’re part of the smaller pre-boomer generation that was born at the tail end of the Great Depression and during World War II. They have more in common… Read More

My dad is in his early 70s. I remember when he was in his 50s and would joke that when he retired, he would be glad to take the spare bunk in my youngest son’s room. Luckily, it hasn’t come to that.#-ad_banner-# Like many American seniors, he and my mother, also in her early 70s, are in excellent health and extremely active. They both still work full time. They’re not baby boomers. They’re part of the smaller pre-boomer generation that was born at the tail end of the Great Depression and during World War II. They have more in common with their parents than their younger boomer siblings or cousins. On the whole, they seem to be a little tougher, a little more independent and self-sufficient. Baby boomers, on the other hand, not so much. From the toy companies of the ’50s to the Big Pharma companies of the 1990s hawking erectile dysfunction cures, corporations and their shareholders have consistently profited in a big way by catering to the perceived immediate needs of the biggest bubble of the U.S. population — all 76 million of them, with another estimated 10,000 baby boomers turning 65 every day over the next 16… Read More

Arbitrage is a financial concept that’s been around since the dawn of the time. Simply put, engaging in arbitrage means buying an asset in one location where it’s cheap, then immediately turning around and selling it in a place where it commands a higher price. With globalization and international trade continuing to play a larger role in today’s economy, arbitrage opportunities are getting harder to find… and even when you do spot them, chances are they won’t last long. Yet despite the rarity of these occurrences, this is exactly the kind of opportunity we’re seeing in today’s natural gas market…… Read More

Arbitrage is a financial concept that’s been around since the dawn of the time. Simply put, engaging in arbitrage means buying an asset in one location where it’s cheap, then immediately turning around and selling it in a place where it commands a higher price. With globalization and international trade continuing to play a larger role in today’s economy, arbitrage opportunities are getting harder to find… and even when you do spot them, chances are they won’t last long. Yet despite the rarity of these occurrences, this is exactly the kind of opportunity we’re seeing in today’s natural gas market… #-ad_banner-# Dave Forest – StreetAuthority’s resident commodities expert and Chief Investment Strategist for Junior Resource Advisor — is so excited about this opportunity that he recently dedicated an entire issue of his premium newsletter to covering it. Said Dave in his November issue of Junior Resource Advisor: The current situation in natural gas markets is unique. As I write these words, U.S. and Canadian natural gas sells for a paltry $3.50 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf). And yet just across the Pacific in markets such as Japan and Korea, gas is going for nearly $16 — as measured by… Read More

When I was in elementary school, we called a student who got good grades, stayed out of trouble and embraced his or her position as teacher’s pet “Goody Two-shoes.” With that in mind, I’d like to introduce you to a company I like to consider the Goody Two-shoes of insurance companies. It takes few risks, performs admirably and is well liked by some of the most upstanding clients around. Founded in 1945 by two Illinois schoolteachers, Horace Mann Educators (NYSE: HMN) is an $8.5 billion national multi-line insurance company. Just about every penny comes from public K-12 teachers, administrators and… Read More

When I was in elementary school, we called a student who got good grades, stayed out of trouble and embraced his or her position as teacher’s pet “Goody Two-shoes.” With that in mind, I’d like to introduce you to a company I like to consider the Goody Two-shoes of insurance companies. It takes few risks, performs admirably and is well liked by some of the most upstanding clients around. Founded in 1945 by two Illinois schoolteachers, Horace Mann Educators (NYSE: HMN) is an $8.5 billion national multi-line insurance company. Just about every penny comes from public K-12 teachers, administrators and their families in the U.S., a market expected to grow 14% by 2020. The auto, property and casualty segment represents 52% of Horace Mann’s business, with commission-generating annuities and life insurance accounting for 39% and 9%, respectively.#-ad_banner-# About 6 million teachers, administrators and support personnel worked in K-12 in the U.S. in 2012. Another 413,000 college students are planning to become teachers, and 1.2 million are retired. That’s a big, loyal, responsible, insurance-buying market that blesses Horace Mann with higher-than-average retention rates, a low rate of paid claims and steady growth of its annuity and life insurance products. The company… Read More

For many market strategists, the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion-dollar stimulus program has had one huge drawback. The Fed’s massive quantitative easing (QE) programs have rendered what’s known as the yield curve utterly useless — and that’s left everyone in the dark as to just how healthy or weak the U.S. economy remains.#-ad_banner-# The good news: The Fed’s looming retrenchment from stimulus will let the yield curve take its natural shape again, helping investors to better navigate a confounding market environment. (Surging stocks and weak economic data do no typically go hand in hand.) You’ll be hearing a… Read More

For many market strategists, the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion-dollar stimulus program has had one huge drawback. The Fed’s massive quantitative easing (QE) programs have rendered what’s known as the yield curve utterly useless — and that’s left everyone in the dark as to just how healthy or weak the U.S. economy remains.#-ad_banner-# The good news: The Fed’s looming retrenchment from stimulus will let the yield curve take its natural shape again, helping investors to better navigate a confounding market environment. (Surging stocks and weak economic data do no typically go hand in hand.) You’ll be hearing a lot about the yield curve in 2014, so to better understand its looming implications, let’s brush up on the concept now. What Kind Of Slope? Bond investors typically demand a higher interest rate for longer-term securities. After all, in an uncertain world, longer time horizons bring a greater chance that something can go wrong. (And if we’re talking about bonds, then we’re talking about the corrosive effects of inflation or an expectation of much higher bond issuance by Uncle Sam and others.) So a yield curve is simply the slope of interest rates on short- to mid- to long-term… Read More