As companies release their profit outlooks for 2016, some investors are getting worried about the six-year bull market. One of the largest companies based in my hometown just released its outlook and it sent shares skidding down toward 52-week lows.  But we’ve heard this story before. Management lowers expectations so the market doesn’t get too far ahead of itself only to consistently beat when results are reported. In fact, this company has beaten expectations in 11 of the past 12 quarters. What more, I’m expecting one key trend to turn very soon, leading to big upside and a… Read More

As companies release their profit outlooks for 2016, some investors are getting worried about the six-year bull market. One of the largest companies based in my hometown just released its outlook and it sent shares skidding down toward 52-week lows.  But we’ve heard this story before. Management lowers expectations so the market doesn’t get too far ahead of itself only to consistently beat when results are reported. In fact, this company has beaten expectations in 11 of the past 12 quarters. What more, I’m expecting one key trend to turn very soon, leading to big upside and a much stronger 2016 than anyone expects, which is why I’m getting positioned now. Des Moines, Iowa-based Principal Financial Group (NYSE: PFG) provides 401(k) employer plans, annuity and insurance products to 20 million global customers, many of which are small and medium-sized businesses. The company has built an attractive position in the market by targeting firms that don’t generally show up on the radar of larger insurance companies. #-ad_banner-# While most insurance companies are dependent on investment income, Principal has focused on growing its fee-based revenue through asset management and retirement services. Since investment income and other rate-sensitive products… Read More

I call this little-known strategy a “heist.” That’s because when you use it, you’re almost “stealing” from Wall Street’s profits. To understand what I mean, think about how a casino works. Every day, people come in through the doors seeking that one big payout. Sure, some people hit the jackpot once in a while. Most are lucky to simply break even or only lose a little bit, while others completely lose their shirt. Either way, the house always wins. That’s exactly how the derivatives market works on Wall Street. This market is like a financial gambling casino where risk-loving speculators… Read More

I call this little-known strategy a “heist.” That’s because when you use it, you’re almost “stealing” from Wall Street’s profits. To understand what I mean, think about how a casino works. Every day, people come in through the doors seeking that one big payout. Sure, some people hit the jackpot once in a while. Most are lucky to simply break even or only lose a little bit, while others completely lose their shirt. Either way, the house always wins. That’s exactly how the derivatives market works on Wall Street. This market is like a financial gambling casino where risk-loving speculators come to place bets. And it’s for this very reason that it’s one of Wall Street’s main sources of income. You see, Wall Street acts as the casino operator in the derivatives market, collecting the money being lost on these bets. But what most ordinary investors don’t realize is that in this market, there are strategies that let you take on the role of the casino owner. In other words, it allows you to collect the money being lost instead of Wall Street. This strategy is used by many private investors who’ve caught on to this secret. In fact, my… Read More

While investors are hyper-focused on retailers this time of year, I see an overlooked opportunity in a prominent department store chain. Macy’s (NYSE: M) popped 8% on July 15 when activist investor Starboard Value announced an undisclosed stake and plans to push for a spinoff of the company’s real estate properties into a real estate investment trust (REIT).  The month before, Macy’s CFO Karen Hoguet cooled REIT rumors, saying the company preferred to control its locations. But investors continued to hold out hope, as similar strategies had sent shares of companies like Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) and Darden… Read More

While investors are hyper-focused on retailers this time of year, I see an overlooked opportunity in a prominent department store chain. Macy’s (NYSE: M) popped 8% on July 15 when activist investor Starboard Value announced an undisclosed stake and plans to push for a spinoff of the company’s real estate properties into a real estate investment trust (REIT).  The month before, Macy’s CFO Karen Hoguet cooled REIT rumors, saying the company preferred to control its locations. But investors continued to hold out hope, as similar strategies had sent shares of companies like Sears Holdings (Nasdaq: SHLD) and Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) skyward. But those hopes were dashed when third-quarter results were released earlier this month. Management expressed its opposition to a spinoff and lowered its full-year outlook — a one-two punch that sent shares plunging 14% in one day. With REIT speculation dead and short-term traders shaken out, the shares look like a great bargain. #-ad_banner-# Real Estate Still Holds A Great Deal Of Promise Starboard estimated Macy’s real estate holdings at $21 billion this summer, which is nearly double… Read More

My years in the military have allowed me to see the world in a totally different way. While deployed overseas, I tracked IED locations, went on convoy missions and gathered intelligence from local villages. I learned the importance of analyzing data to forecast what was likely to happen in the future, and I used this data to determine the level of risk our soldiers were dealing with. The typical mission was scheduled to take seven days but almost always ended up taking longer due to roadside bombs and the occasional unruly hostile who decided to shoot at us. These experiences… Read More

My years in the military have allowed me to see the world in a totally different way. While deployed overseas, I tracked IED locations, went on convoy missions and gathered intelligence from local villages. I learned the importance of analyzing data to forecast what was likely to happen in the future, and I used this data to determine the level of risk our soldiers were dealing with. The typical mission was scheduled to take seven days but almost always ended up taking longer due to roadside bombs and the occasional unruly hostile who decided to shoot at us. These experiences opened my eyes to the bigger picture — not just in the military, but in everyday life. My experience assessing risk in the military also allows me to think outside the box. And when it comes to the financial markets, it’s paid off in a big way. Today, there is an onslaught of different investing techniques and strategies. When I was first introduced to them, I found myself, like most, overwhelmed. That’s when my training came in handy. I immediately looked at the market from a different angle. I was soon drawn to a little-known but massive market… one that… Read More

If there is one sector that demonstrates how big stocks can overshadow the performance of the masses, it is retail. With behemoths such as Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) leading the way higher, retail benchmarks like the Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSE: RTH) are holding up fairly well.  But a look at somewhat smaller retailers such as Macy’s (NYSE: M) and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) paints an entirely different picture. The typical retail stock is in serious decline.  While simply following the trend in falling stocks should lead to profits, I scanned the sector for… Read More

If there is one sector that demonstrates how big stocks can overshadow the performance of the masses, it is retail. With behemoths such as Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) leading the way higher, retail benchmarks like the Market Vectors Retail ETF (NYSE: RTH) are holding up fairly well.  But a look at somewhat smaller retailers such as Macy’s (NYSE: M) and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) paints an entirely different picture. The typical retail stock is in serious decline.  While simply following the trend in falling stocks should lead to profits, I scanned the sector for stocks that are not quite as far along in their declines. Stocks in weak groups that are just starting to break down have more room to fall.  The one I like best is L Brands (NYSE: LB),  which sells women’s apparel and beauty and personal care products through Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works stores.  LB outperformed the market coming off the late-August lows. In the process, it moved above resistance set by highs from earlier this year. The October breakout was tentative, but on Nov. 2, the company raised its guidance for the third… Read More

According to Forrester Research, it’s the “age of the customer,” which is why the buzz phrase “customer experience” is front and center for companies across industries. Research by Emmett and Mark Murphy, authors of “Leading on the Edge of Chaos,” shows companies can increase profitability by 25% to 125% by simply reducing their customer defection rate 5%. And according to a Customers 2020 Report, customer experience will be a more important differentiating factor than price or product over the next five years. One particularly interesting area of customer experience is called “engagement marketing,” which entails directly involving customers… Read More

According to Forrester Research, it’s the “age of the customer,” which is why the buzz phrase “customer experience” is front and center for companies across industries. Research by Emmett and Mark Murphy, authors of “Leading on the Edge of Chaos,” shows companies can increase profitability by 25% to 125% by simply reducing their customer defection rate 5%. And according to a Customers 2020 Report, customer experience will be a more important differentiating factor than price or product over the next five years. One particularly interesting area of customer experience is called “engagement marketing,” which entails directly involving customers in building a brand. Through social media and smartphone apps, customers can provide immediate input into a brand’s direction. In response, companies can better cater to customers’ needs, and as the theory goes, generate higher sales. #-ad_banner-# That’s where engagement marketing company Marketo (Nasdaq: MKTO) comes in. The company, which was founded in 2007, specializes in providing cloud-based engagement marketing software. This software enables online marketers to measure and improve the effectiveness of their customer interactions. Marketo boasts strong revenue growth and a stock on the brink of a bullish breakout. Despite double-digit sales growth, Marketo… Read More

As the S&P 500 peaked last week, I issued a bearish alert to my Profit Amplifier subscribers. We are already up more than 50% on the trade I recommended, but I see much more downside to come in the market.  And that could mean big profits for those of you reading this right now. Many of you may not be aware of it, but we are currently in a recession. It’s not a full-blown economic recession (yet), but it is an earnings recession.  At the end of last week, 444 of the S&P’s 500… Read More

As the S&P 500 peaked last week, I issued a bearish alert to my Profit Amplifier subscribers. We are already up more than 50% on the trade I recommended, but I see much more downside to come in the market.  And that could mean big profits for those of you reading this right now. Many of you may not be aware of it, but we are currently in a recession. It’s not a full-blown economic recession (yet), but it is an earnings recession.  At the end of last week, 444 of the S&P’s 500 companies had reported Q3 earnings. According to FactSet, the blended results (actual results for companies that have reported plus estimated results for companies that have not reported) showed a 2.2% decline versus Q3 2014. That’s even worse than the second quarter, which ended the season with a 2.1% decline in earnings. #-ad_banner-# If Q3 earnings growth is still negative once everything has been reported — and it looks like it will be — it will be the first time we’ve seen consecutive quarters of earnings declines since 2009. To make matters worse, analysts expect a 3.7% drop in… Read More

Consolidation in the telecommunications and pay-TV markets has put the two industries in flux. We’ve seen mega-mergers like the tie-up between AT&T (NYSE: T) and DirectTV approved while others have been thwarted.  A big deal may be coming soon that could translate to strong upside for a beaten-down leader in the pay-TV market over the next few months. Dish Adapting To The Changing TV Landscape Shares of Dish Network (Nasdaq: DISH) fell this week even though the satellite TV provider reported a better-than-expected 35% jump in Q3 earnings year over year. Sales came in below expectations, though, and… Read More

Consolidation in the telecommunications and pay-TV markets has put the two industries in flux. We’ve seen mega-mergers like the tie-up between AT&T (NYSE: T) and DirectTV approved while others have been thwarted.  A big deal may be coming soon that could translate to strong upside for a beaten-down leader in the pay-TV market over the next few months. Dish Adapting To The Changing TV Landscape Shares of Dish Network (Nasdaq: DISH) fell this week even though the satellite TV provider reported a better-than-expected 35% jump in Q3 earnings year over year. Sales came in below expectations, though, and subscribers continued to decline. The company reported a net loss of 23,000 subscribers in the quarter — nearly double the loss posted a year ago.  With many viewers “cutting the cord” and shifting to over-the-top Internet-based products, Dish launched its Sling service in February. This Internet-based service offers live streaming of more than 30 premium channels.  While the company doesn’t break out the number of satellite versus Sling subscribers, UBS (NYSE: UBS) analyst John Hodulik said it likely lost 173,000 satellite TV customers in the third quarter while adding 150,000 Sling subscribers. Adapting to the changing TV viewing landscape is… Read More

The current stock market is throwing a lot of surprises investors’ way, but one piece of market advice still rings true: Buy stocks that are already going up. Even in shaky markets, the leaders still tend to lead. And by simply following the trend, we can avoid having to pick tops and bottoms.  Although it is not one of the glamorous stocks we see in the headlines daily, Lithia Motors (NYSE: LAD) exhibits the same sort of leadership qualities, and that shows an innate demand for its shares. One of the largest automotive retailers in the United States,… Read More

The current stock market is throwing a lot of surprises investors’ way, but one piece of market advice still rings true: Buy stocks that are already going up. Even in shaky markets, the leaders still tend to lead. And by simply following the trend, we can avoid having to pick tops and bottoms.  Although it is not one of the glamorous stocks we see in the headlines daily, Lithia Motors (NYSE: LAD) exhibits the same sort of leadership qualities, and that shows an innate demand for its shares. One of the largest automotive retailers in the United States, Lithia’s stock has handily outperformed the market. While the S&P 500 was trapped in a trading range for the first six months of the year, LAD gained roughly 40%. And now that the market seems to be backing down after six strong weeks, Lithia is holding tight to resistance near its all-time highs. On the chart, the stock has formed a variation of a “W” pattern with two intermediate rallies instead of one between two larger rallies. Normally, such patterns — also called double- or triple-bottoms — appear after declines. However, they can appear after rallies as consolidation… Read More

Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFM) isn’t winning any popularity contests lately. On top of being sardonically dubbed “Whole Paycheck,” the natural and organic foods grocery chain has seen its stock price nearly cut in half this year. A pricing scandal, expansion costs, growing competition and slowing same-store sales have weighed on the stock. And last week, shares got hammered when the company reported earnings that missed analysts’ estimates and posted its first same-store quarterly sales decline since 2009. The post-earnings headlines were dismal, and many investors probably wouldn’t touch Whole Foods with a 10-foot pole right now. But… Read More

Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFM) isn’t winning any popularity contests lately. On top of being sardonically dubbed “Whole Paycheck,” the natural and organic foods grocery chain has seen its stock price nearly cut in half this year. A pricing scandal, expansion costs, growing competition and slowing same-store sales have weighed on the stock. And last week, shares got hammered when the company reported earnings that missed analysts’ estimates and posted its first same-store quarterly sales decline since 2009. The post-earnings headlines were dismal, and many investors probably wouldn’t touch Whole Foods with a 10-foot pole right now. But based on its attractive valuation and two bullish catalysts, I think the stock is a screaming “buy.” #-ad_banner-# An Oversold Turnaround Ironically, Whole Foods’ recent poor performance may be the key to the company’s success. This latest earnings miss really puts management in the hot seat. They must take dramatic action or face more retaliation from investors. And management has already begun to take steps in the right direction. Last month, in an effort to cut costs, the company said it would eliminate 1,500 jobs, about 1.6% of its workforce. Then, on Wednesday, management announced a $1 billion… Read More