A Rare Deal On An American Icon

David Goodboy's picture

Thursday, December 29, 2016 - 9:30am

by David Goodboy

Freedom, opportunity, rock 'n' roll, baseball, apple pie, and a cultural melting pot are commonly associated with American culture.

But perhaps even more ubiquitous are our mega-corporations. Giants like Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Ford (NYSE: F), and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) are on the forefront of American corporate identity.

Digging deeper, names like McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) come to mind. I cannot help but think of all the stock market fortunes these seven American icons have built over the years. It's truly staggering to realize all the family fortunes that have been made with only one or two of these iconic American corporations as the core component.

And there's another one of these American icons that is a great buy right now. This company is 118 years old and has a logo that is globally recognizable by nearly everyone. Despite boasting a market cap of over $8 billion and revenue of more than $15 billion, this company has been widely disregarded by investors over the last several years. Shares are just below breaking even on the year, down 2.2% to date.

That makes Goodyear Tire & Rubber (Nasdaq: GT) a great buy at its current price.

A former component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company is an American multinational tire manufacturing company founded in 1898 and headquartered in Akron, Ohio.

Goodyear, named for the inventor of vulcanized rubber, produces tires for everything from consumer automobiles, commercial trucks, motorcycles, and race cars to airplanes, farm equipment, and heavy earth-mover machinery.

The company reached iconic status thanks to its marketing tactics, including the famous Goodyear Blimp. Though Goodyear had been manufacturing blimps and balloons since the early 1900s, the first marketing blimp took to the skies in 1925.

Today, the blimp is one of the most recognizable advertising icons in America.

Goodyear's current annual revenue of over $15 billion represents a drop of around $4 billion from 2007 levels. However, 2016 earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted near $4.00, more than double the number in 2007. Recently trading close to $31.50 per share reflects a forward price-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 8. This is about 55% less than the S&P 500, signaling that now might be the right moment to buy.

In addition, demand for larger tires will be an important profit booster in coming years. Demand for 17-inch and larger tires, which are more profitable than smaller ones, has doubled in the United States over the last six years. The company projects this trend to increase again by 2020.

Goodyear earns approximately $25.00 per tire for the larger sizes, as opposed to just $9.00 for the under-17-inch tires on new vehicles. Replacement tires, which are more profitable than new tires, lift the profit margin to $32.00 per tire in the larger sizes. Goodyear earns about 70% of its revenue from replacement tires already, and as time goes on, the larger tire trend will inflate these revenues.

Another growth catalyst is Goodyear's online tire buying system. This internet based service allows customers to order tires online for delivery to the local garage for installation. The online system is hugely beneficial, as it simplifies the buying process and gives consumers a wide variety of tire choices. These added benefits should work to up per-transaction revenue by giving consumers a better understanding of the value of specialty tires.

The company is currently in the middle of a cost-cutting program, but  overestimated guidance, resulting in a sharp selloff in the shares. However, the share price has since rallied back to just 2% under previous levels on the back of a projected EPS growth of 18%.

Even better, Barron's has recently reported that Goodyear is ideally positioned to start buying back shares. Its current dividend yield of just 1.3% provides room for buybacks to ramp higher over the next few years, driving the share price up with them.

Risks To Consider: The company's performance is tied to both economic growth and oil prices. My long call depends on the economy remaining stable or growing over the next several years.

Action To Take: Wait for a breakout above $32.50 per share to enter long with stops at $29.33 per share. My target price is $40.00 per share.

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David Goodboy does not personally hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.
StreetAuthority LLC does not hold positions in any securities mentioned in this article.