What It Takes To Cash In On Innovation… And My Latest Investment Prediction…
In case you needed more proof that the so-called “experts” don’t always have all the answers, then allow me to tell you a little story.
It was 1987. The largest telecom company on earth at the time, AT&T (NYSE: T), hired McKinsey, the well-known consulting firm, to answer one simple question…
How many people would have cell phones by the year 2000?
McKinsey, was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to answer this question. In corporatespeak, AT&T wanted to know the TAM (or total addressable market) for this new technology.
And they couldn’t have been more wrong…
Keep in mind that cell phones were very primitive back then. The device probably didn’t even register with most folks. But after collecting their hefty consulting fee, the experts at McKinsey confidently told AT&T that they could expect to have about 900,000 cellphone subscribers.
The actual number: 109 million. They were off by more than 100 times.
The Pace Of Innovation
The point isn’t to make fun of McKinsey. That’s because nearly everyone (especially the experts) is usually wrong when it comes to technology.
Technological disruptions happen much faster than we can imagine.
For instance, in 1900, the streets of New York City were covered with horses and buggies. It was how everyone got around. Fast forward just 13 years, and the automobile completely replaced horses as the primary mode of transportation.
Car market share went from essentially nothing to 95% of the market in 20 years.
In 2007, Steve Jobs lit the cellphone industry on fire when he introduced the iPhone. Little did we know just how much it would not only revolutionize the cell phone industry but the entire world.
Of course, in hindsight, it may seem obvious that Jobs’ announcement that day would eventually change the world. But at the time, some of the smartest people around greeted Apple’s iPhone with a healthy dose of skepticism.
For example, there was Jim Balsillie, the CEO of then-market leader BlackBerry. (Remember that company?) He completely dismissed the iPhone, calling it “one more entrant into an already very busy space with lots of choice for consumers.”
Steve Ballmer, then-CEO of tech giant Microsoft, scoffed at the iPhone, calling it too expensive and “not a very good e-mail machine,” since it lacked a traditional keyboard. He added, “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance…”
A Bloomberg analyst said, “The iPhone’s impact will be minimal. It will only appeal to a few gadget freaks. Nokia and Motorola have nothing to worry about.”
Think about how shortsighted (and foolish) those statements seem in hindsight. In the first quarter of 2008, Apple had already captured over 19% of the smartphone market in the United States. By the end of 2008, it had sold over 10 million iPhones.
It took eight years to go from brand-new idea to more than 230 million sold units. Today, just 15 years later, it is by far the world’s best-selling smartphone.
Here’s Why This Matters
Here’s the reason I’m bringing this up. Whether we’re talking about automobiles, cellphones, and later the iPhone, the internet… these technological disruptions always happen faster than people expect.
They also create massive amounts of wealth for those who maintain an open mind and are patient enough to see them through.
For example, do you personally know many people who bought Apple shares when Jobs first announced the iPhone? If they did and held until today, they’d be up a life-changing 6,500% (even after suffering through the financial crisis):
Again, this seems obvious in hindsight. But if it were, you’d undoubtedly know someone who made a fortune by buying Apple back then.
Do you? The truth is that it takes a rare breed of investor to pull off gains that even come close to this. You have to be forward-looking, and then have the guts to not only pull the trigger and buy, but also ride it out.
Mark my words. In the coming years we’re going to see another disruption that will follow the same script as cell phones, the internet, and the iPhone.
First, it will be met with skepticism. It will be ridiculed. But as it blooms to life, we will look back in five to eight years and wonder how we survived without it… much like how it’s hard to grasp life without a smartphone in our pocket.
Now, I don’t have a crystal ball, so I can’t predict exactly what those things are going to be. But my research team and I spend a good chunk of our time each year researching and thinking about this.
That’s why over at Capital Wealth Letter, each year, we put out a report full of our predictions for the coming year — and beyond.
This can be a tricky business, but it’s worth it.
I’m not looking to just beat the market — I’m looking for ways to generate life-changing fortunes.
The best way to get rich from investing is by understanding the process I outlined above: find a breakthrough idea early on, buy confidently (but don’t bet the farm), and hopefully watch your profits soar as the product or service matures into a mainstream commercial success.
The ordinary media rarely cover this beat. They’ll tell you all about a discovery once it comes out — but they won’t tell you where the puck is going to be next. And I can assure you that if you are not looking for the next breakthrough… you won’t find it.
That’s why, just recently, we released a “bonus” prediction for our report that could be another opportunity for life-changing gains.
I won’t give you all the details right away (out of fairness to my premium subscribers). But I’ll tell you a little about it, so that you can draw your own conclusions…
Our “Bonus” Prediction
It’s a nearly a foregone conclusion that sooner or later our packages will arrive at our doorstep via drone.
Just take a second and think about that. Think about how crazy that would have sounded just a few years ago.
And here’s the thing… it’s happening sooner rather than later. Amazon is already delivering products via drone. Their first “Prime Air” customer ordered a TV, and 13 minutes after he clicked “order” it was at his door.
Amazon’s drones fly 15 miles and deliver packages within 30 minutes. That blows away two-day Prime shipping. And once it gets FAA clearance, you could have a five-pound package delivered for a cost of just 88 cents. Compare that to $73 for FedEx same-day service.
Beyond their remarkable convenience, these pilot-less aircrafts are one of the most compelling investment opportunities you’ll see in your lifetime.
Just like the personal computer, the Internet and the smartphone, delivery drones will revolutionize daily life.
Major retailers… logistics providers… defense contractors… they’re all throwing their hats in the ring.
In my updated Predictions report, I lay out a strong case for a small company whose drones can fly anywhere in the world, even where there is no GPS. They can be used by the military, construction, surveillance, oil & gas explorers, and by EMTs and other first responders. It has even won a NASA contract to provide the drones for an upcoming mission to Mars.
Go here to learn more about his opportunity as well as the rest of our predictions right now.