The Fed, Starbucks, Metals, and More!
Editor’s Note: TGIF!
Let’s get to it!
Fed Signals Likely Rate Cut in September
As expected, the Federal Reserve didn’t touch its benchmark interest rate at its July meeting this week.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut may be coming — perhaps as soon as the next central bank meeting in September.
“We’re getting closer to the point at which it’ll be appropriate to reduce our policy rate,” the Fed head said. “But we’re not quite at that point.”
According to Powell, “a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table” in September.
The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting wing, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), hasn’t touched the Effective Federal Fund Rate since July 2023. This key interest rate, which determines how much banks can charge to borrow from each other overnight, has remained unchanged in a target range of between 5.25% and 5.50%.
In a released statement, the Federal Reserve noted that “The [FOMC] seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. The committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.
“The economic outlook is uncertain, and the committee is attentive to the risks of both sides of its dual mandate.”
In other words, the Fed is going to keep looking at the data.
No big surprise there.
One interesting thing has happened in the past week, however.
According to the CME Group’s (NSDQ: CME) FedWatch tool, the fed funds futures markets have been pricing in near-certain odds that the FOMC will lower its benchmark rate in September for some time now.
However, the chances that the Fed will enact a 50-basis-point cut, rather than a 25-basis-point cut in September are growing.
Currently, the tool shows an 84.5% chance that the Fed will lower its target range to 5.00% to 5.25%.
And there’s a 15.5% chance that the central bank will bring that range down to 4.75% to 5.00%.
The tool no longer shows any odds of the Fed keeping rates still at its next meeting.
Of course, because the odds of a rate cut are so heavily baked into the markets at this time that when the Fed does pull the trigger there will likely be little effect on the markets.
The Consumer Strikes Back
On Tuesday, Starbucks (NSDQ: SBUX) reported quarterly revenue that missed estimates due to weaker demand at cafes both abroad and in the U.S.
Revenue for the coffee chain’s fiscal third quarter totaled $9.11 billion, rather than the $9.24 billion analysts had been expecting, according to LSEG. That reflected a 1% decline on a year-over-year basis.
At the same time, same-store sales tumbled by 3% as transactions fell by 5% on a year-over-year basis.
Net income for the quarter totaled $1.05 billion, or 93 cents per share. That reflected a somewhat significant drop from the $1.14 billion, or 99 cents per share, posted in the year-ago quarter.
Traffic to Starbucks stores in the U.S. dropped 6%, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline.
According to CEO Laxman Narasimhan, although consumers are increasingly buying the company’s packaged coffee at supermarkets, they’re pulling back on spending at the chain’s cafe locations.
International same-store sales dropped by 7%. China, the company’s second-largest market, showed a 14% drop-off in same-store sales. According to Narasimhan, Starbucks’ China business has improved in the current quarter. However, strong competition from less expensive homegrown Chinese coffee shops is taking a toll.
For the full fiscal year, Starbucks is still expecting revenue growth in the low single digits and earnings per share growth to be either flat or in the low single digits.
It would appear that customers around the world are no longer willing to pay $6 for an iced coffee. The consumer pullback trend has become visible at many other food chains and stores recently following years of higher menu prices.
This week, McDonald’s (NYSE: MCD) also reported a dropoff in same-store sales — the first since 2020.
McDonald’s is trying to reverse the trend by extending its $5 bonus meal deal.
Meta Reports Q2 Beat
Shares of Meta Platforms (NSDQ: META) — the company formerly known as Facebook — rose this week after the company reported quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street estimates and issued a better-than-expected forecast for the current quarter.
According to the social media giant, second-quarter revenue totaled $39.07 billion. That’s a roughly 22% increase on a year-over-year basis and higher than the $38.31 billion in revenue Wall Street had been expecting.
It also marked the fourth consecutive quarter of 20%-plus revenue growth for Meta, whose businesses include Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp.
Meta also reported a whopping 73% year-over-year boost in net income, to $13.47 billion or $5.16 per share.
In the year-ago quarter, this metric came to $7.79 billion, or $2.98 per share. Wall Street had expected Meta to report earnings per share of $4.73, according to LSEG.
According to the company, its advertising revenue is largely to thank for the better-than-expected quarter, showing a 22% year-over-year improvement.
The company also reported lower-than-expected capital expenditures of $8.47 billion. Analysts had been expecting capex of $9.51 billion.
For the third quarter, Meta is now expecting to report revenue in a range of between $38.5 billion and $41 billion. Analysts had been expecting the company to report a forecast of $39.1 billion — lower than Meta’s provided midpoint of $39.75 billion.
Where Do Our Metals Come From?
The tech sector’s demand for minerals such as cobalt, lithium, and nickel is skyrocketing. These metals are used for a range of products, from cell phones to wind turbines.
And as both tech and green energy play progressively larger roles in society, the global demand for minerals will undoubtedly balloon even further.
New data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicates that China accounts for roughly two-thirds of the world’s critical mineral processing and refining.
Although many raw materials may be sourced from around the globe, China refines more than half of the world’s aluminum, cobalt, and lithium, roughly 90% of rare earth metals, and 100% of natural graphite.
Take a look:
You will find more infographics at Statista
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