Scoop up These 4 Stocks for Better Prices than the Pros

Follow the smart money. That’s a classic adage in the investment lexicon, but it’s really not hard to follow the steps of all-time investment experts such as Warren Buffett, Carl Icahn and George Soros. Thanks to the 13F filing from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), any investor can easily find out what stocks some of the biggest names in investing own. [Some of these stocks are so good, StreetAuthority Co-Founder Paul Tracy calls them, “forever stocks.” He can tell you more about these stocks in his latest presentation, “The 10 Best Stocks to Hold Forever”]

Sure, it’s nice to know your portfolio contains some of the same stocks as Buffett, John Paulson or T. Boone Pickens. However, following 13F filings is no guarantee of good returns, because they are only made public after the pros have bought the stocks listed in the filing.
   
Unfortunately, this means many investors usually end up getting into these stocks at higher prices than what the pros paid. But this is not the case now. The major summer selloff really sent many stocks down and — despite the market recovery in October — many of them still haven’t returned to their 2011 highs. This means investors have an extraordinary opportunity to get their hands on some stocks formerly or currently owned by pros at much better prices than they paid.

Here are four stocks to consider…

1. Alpha Natural Resources (NYSE: ANR)
    Pro: John Paulson


Hedge-fund guru John Paulson is known to many investors for making a fortune betting against subprime mortgages before the financial crisis. Then, Paulson’s firm, Paulson & Co., bought financials after the market bottom in 2009. Paulson owns plenty of nonbank stocks, and bought shares of Alpha Natural, one of the largest U.S. producers of metallurgical coal, in the first quarter of 2011.

Depending on exactly when he actually made those purchases, Paulson could have bought the stock for just below $50 a share, just above $60 or somewhere in between. Either way, the 52-week high on this volatile coal stock is more than $68, but shares currently hover below $30. This practically guarantees you’ll get far better prices than Paulson.

Alpha Natural is no longer one of Paulson’s holdings, according to his most recent 13F filing. With his flagship Advantage Plus fund showing heavy losses in 2011, Paulson sold his stake in Alpha Natural earlier this year. Now, investors can grab this fast-moving stock at prices well below where Paulson was getting in. Think of the stock as a call option with no expiration date on higher prices and increased consolidation in the coal sector.

2. Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB)
    Pro: T. Boone Pickens


Pickens is considered a legendary investor in the energy sector. Well, even legends make a gaffe now and then. Pickens’ firm, BP Capital, hasn’t necessarily made gaffe when it bought shares of Schlumberger, the world’s largest oilfield services provider. But the firm got into the stock in the second quarter, when it was trading between the low $80s and the mid $90s. Schlumberger closed below $73 on Nov. 2.

Like Alpha Natural, Schlumberger is a fast-moving, high-beta stock.

3. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
    Pro: Bruce Berkowitz


Berkowitz’s Fairholme Capital Management is a major shareholder in downtrodden Bank of America, a position that Berkowitz has had to defend stridently in recent months. While Berkowitz has dumped its stakes in Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), and pared its investment in Citigroup (NYSE: C), the firm has been adding to BofA. Fairholme held 81.9 million shares BofA shares as of Aug. 31, up from 77.3 million since May 31, according to Bloomberg.

Fairholme has been buying shares in BofA since 2010. The stock is down almost 58% since the last trading day of 2009, so if you’re willing to take a leap of faith that the worst is over for bank stocks, then you’ll be getting better prices than Berkowitz.

4. Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX)
    Pro: The Company


Speaking of downtrodden stocks, there’s Netflix. But in this case “the pro” isn’t a famous investor, it’s the company itself. Netflix claims the average price it paid for its own shares through stock buybacks since 2007 is $45, according to The Wall Street Journal. This doesn’t change the fact that the company was buying back shares this year, and for most of the year until September, Netflix shares were trading at more than $200. At one point, the stock was more than $300. It now languishes below $85.

Risks to Consider: The challenge faced by all four of these stocks is easy to identify: They need the “risk-on” trade to be ”on” in order to move higher. Any bad news pertaining to bank stocks almost always affects Bank of America negatively. A move away from energy and materials names would spell bad news for Alpha Natural and Schlumberger. Still, Netflix might be the riskiest of the lot, because the company has been losing customers at a troubling rate.

Action To Take –> Schlumberger won’t wow anyone with its 1.3% yield, although it’s the best of this group. Not to mention, Schlumberger is probably the best run of these four companies. In September, former CEO Andrew Gould said Schlumberger will continue generating considerable free cash flow and some of that cash will be used for dividends and share buybacks. Add to that, demand for oil services is expected to continue growing. Alpha Natural is also a good move because the stock can generate strong gains in a short amount of time. These two stocks are the best plays in this group, in my opinion, although Netflix and BofA could pay off as well.